Hot Shot For Tuesday

Good Morning.



New Home sales, Consumer confidence, and the FOMC (Afternoon) reports are due out today. All are bound to have a bearish effect on the ES and boost the Bonds. We had a low volume day yesterday, however and the volume in the ES is favoring the high side of the pivot this morning. If there was an average volume day yesterday I would contiue to be bearish, however since only a fraction of the market participants traded yesterday, I think the sell off is going to bring in buyers who think the market is at a premium. I am cautiously bullish as a result. Follow the volume. If we trade higher than 1270 start buying low volume pull backs - if we trade lower that 1263 sell the low volume rallies -



Support and Resistance Numbers



ES ZB

r4 1287.00 119.22

r3 1280.25 119.15

r2 1275.50 119.04

r1 1270.50 118.29

PP 1267.50 118.25

s1 1263.50 118.15

s2 1257.50 118.07

s3 1250.75 117.28

s4 1244.75 117.15





Best

Josh Kelne

Office: 312-521-7347

800-845-9685

www.trademaven.com

Take the Trade

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This e-mail is confidential and may also be legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, use of the information contained in this e-mail (including disclosure, copying or distribution) is prohibited and may be unlawful. TradeMaven Inside Edge is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.

Hot Shot For Monday

Good Morning.



Existing Home Sales and bill auctions are the only reports out today - Home sales are bound to be a drag on the ES, look for a sharp break at 9:00 am Central on that announcement. I am not at al confident that the ES will hold its gains from Friday - 1279 is going to act like a magnet because it is such a large volume area. If the ES breaks lower to the 1285 area be a seller - I am leaning toward the bear side this morning. Open interest was lower and volume has been building lower since last night's open.




Support and Resistance Numbers



ES ZB

r4 1307.50 118.28

r3 1302.50 118.22

r2 1296.50 118.15

r1 1293.00 118.09

PP 1289.00 118.03

s1 1286.50 117.30

s2 1283.50 117.18

s3 1280.25 117.13

s4 1275.50 117.02





Best

Josh Kelne

Hot Shot for Friday

Good Morning.

Volume is building lower and lower off reports - unemployment was higher than expected, home sales lower than expected. It is going to be a while until the economy finds sure footing. I feel more comfortable selling the low volume rallies today.

Support and Resistance Numbers

ES ZB

r4 1275.50 116.18
r3 1270.50 116.05
r2 1263.50 115.22
r1 1258.75 115.10
PP 1256.50 115.04
s1 1247.50 114.46
s2 1240.70 114.16
s3 1236.00 114.10
s4 1230.50 114.01

Best
Josh Kelne
Office: 312-521-7347
800-845-9685
www.trademaven.com

Take the Trade

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This e-mail is confidential and may also be legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, use of the information contained in this e-mail (including disclosure, copying or distribution) is prohibited and may be unlawful. TradeMaven Inside Edge is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.

7/24/08

Good Morning.

Volume is being favored at the pivot - I would lean against 1287 pretty hard -
Support and Resistance Numbers

ES ZB
r4 1305.50 115.08
r3 1295.50 115.03
r2 1291.50 114.26
r1 1287.25 114.16
PP 1280.50 114.06
s1 1275.50 114.02
s2 1270.50 113.24
s3 1268.75 113.19
s4 1263.25 113.09

7/1/08

Good Morning.

The trend continues to move downward and volume continues to build lower (including a rise in open interest of 35,000 contracts) all signaling the trend will continue. Trade with a short bias. Sell rallies against resistance.


ES ZB

r4 1301.75 116.21
r3 1296.00 116.17
r2 1291.75 116.11
r1 1286.50 116.05
PP 1280.25 115.27
s1 1277.75 115.16
s2 1270.75 115.10
s3 1264.25 115.00
s4 1260.75 114.26

today's reports:
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
Tomorrow's Reports:
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Redbook 8:55 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET

6/30/08

Good Morning.



The trend continues to move downward and volume continues to build lower (including a rise in open interest of 35,000 contracts) all signaling the trend will continue. Trade with a short bias. Sell rallies against resistance.





ES ZB

r4 1301.75 116.21

r3 1296.00 116.17

r2 1291.75 116.11

r1 1286.50 116.05

PP 1280.25 115.27

s1 1277.75 115.16

s2 1270.75 115.10

s3 1264.25 115.00

s4 1260.75 114.26



today's reports:

NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET



Tomorrow's Reports:

ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET

Redbook 8:55 ET

Construction Spending 10:00 ET

ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET

For Wednesday

Still no change in the bond numbers, but the ES is drifting higher despite my warnings of a sell off.

We are most likely range bound before the Unemployment Number tomorrow - the number is bound to reflect higher unemployment numbers than expected which should have a bearish effect. But follow the volume - if there are no more buyers at resistance sell it and collect back at the pivot.

ES ZB

r4 1307.50 116.21

r3 1301.50 116.17

r2 1295.50 116.11

r1 1291.50 116.05

PP 1284.50 115.27

s1 1275.50 115.16

s2 1270.50 115.10

s3 1263.75 115.00

s4 1256.25 114.26



today's reports:
MBA Apps 7:00 ET
Factory Orders 8:15 ET

Tomorrow's Reports:
Unemployment Situation 8:30ET
ISM non-mfg survey 10:00 ET

Best

Josh Kelne
800-845-9685

Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This e-mail is confidential and may also be legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, use of the information contained in this e-mail (including disclosure, copying or distribution) is prohibited and may be unlawful. TradeMaven Inside Edge is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.

For Tuesday

Good Morning.



Very little change in the numbers - an early morning break in the eMini S&P has created a gap at 1274 area so we are bound to fill in that gap. I am sticking with a short bias. Sell rallies against resistance.





ES ZB

r4 1283.50 116.21

r3 1278.25 116.17

r2 1275.50 116.11

r1 1270.50 116.05

PP 1267.00 115.27

s1 1264.25 115.16

s2 1260.74 115.10

s3 1256.50 115.00

s4 1253.00 114.26



today's reports:


ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET

Redbook 8:55 ET

Construction Spending 10:00 ET

ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET



Tomorrow's Reports:

MBA Apps 7:00 ET

Factory Orders 8:15 ET




Thursday

Unemployment Situation 8:30ET

ISM non-mfg survey 10:00 ET



Best

Josh Kelne

800-845-9685

Josh@trademaven.com


Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This e-mail is confidential and may also be legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, use of the information contained in this e-mail (including disclosure, copying or distribution) is prohibited and may be unlawful. TradeMaven Inside Edge is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.

For Monday

Good Morning.



The trend continues to move downward and volume continues to build lower (including a rise in open interest of 35,000 contracts) all signaling the trend will continue. Trade with a short bias. Sell rallies against resistance.





ES ZB

r4 1301.75 116.21

r3 1296.00 116.17

r2 1291.75 116.11

r1 1286.50 116.05

PP 1280.25 115.27

s1 1277.75 115.16

s2 1270.75 115.10

s3 1264.25 115.00

s4 1260.75 114.26



today's reports:

NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET



Tomorrow's Reports:

ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET

Redbook 8:55 ET

Construction Spending 10:00 ET

ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET



Best

Josh Kelne

800-845-9685



Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This e-mail is confidential and may also be legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, use of the information contained in this e-mail (including disclosure, copying or distribution) is prohibited and may be unlawful. TradeMaven Inside Edge is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.

For Friday

The eMini S&P had 86K contracts open to the short side in Thursday’s session – Traders who hold their positions for an extended period of time are speculating the market to continue its downward trend. Consumer Sentiment and higher fuel prices will exacerbate the situation. Sell the rallies against resistance.


Support and Resistance:

ES ZB
R4 1301.75 116.17
R3 1294.50 116.05
R2 1286.75 115.19
R1 1282.00 115.15
PP 1279.25 115.08
S1 1277.75 115.02
S2 1270.75 114.28
S3 1264.25 114.21
S4 1260.75 114.12


Today’s Reports:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00ET

Hot Shot for Thursday

Today’s news slants toward the bearish side – The sharp overnight downturn is a reflection of market sentiment – I still have a short side bias.

Support and Resistance:

ES ZB
R4 1324.50 115.11
R3 1320.75 114.30
R2 1317.50 114.22
R1 1312.25 114.12
PP 1309.75 114.02
S1 1306.00 113.28
S2 1301.50 113.19
S3 1294.50 113.12
S4 1291.50 113.03


Today’s Reports:
GDP 8:30ET
Jobless Claims 8:30ET
Existing Home Sales 10:00ET


Tomorrow’s Reports
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00ET

Webinar Tuesday Afternoon

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for 10 Jun:

Unemployment Friday

Volume is building to the upside in the S&P with higher open interest. Unles unemployment is bullish, which it very well maybe, I would expect that upward trend to continue. It may mitigate a negative number as well.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
6 Jun:



TradeMaven’s Inside Edge (TIE) 3-2-1 methodology uses 3 rules, 2 patterns, and 1 indicator. Rule #3: Don’t Fade Moves-Out-of-the-Middle (MoM’s.) MoM’s are “go with” trades that put money in your pocket. Any significant market move will start from the middle of a prior distribution. Fading (going against) this type of move is a recipe for disaster. Knowing a MoM is in progress helps you set expectations and market direction for the coming day. Understanding the correct market direction will keep you out of low probability trades and reduce your chances of getting chopped up.



The proprietary TIE Market Profile provides us with an excellent example in the eMini S&P. The short term trend moving higher has run out of gas. The MoM comes out of the distribution, accelerating to the downside. We call this “the end is the beginning.”



To learn more about MoM’s and the 3-2-1 Methodology, Join us, Tuesday June 10th at 3:30pm central time, for a Free Webinar on the TradeMaven Inside Edge.



Charles Cochran, a securities and futures industry veteran of 30 years, will explain trading like a professional utilizing TradeMaven’s 3-2-1 methodology.



To register, follow this link www.iiedge.com, and fill out the registration short-form. We will contact you with username, password and login instructions.



A Free 10-day trial is also available to TradeMaven’s Inside Edge trading room, where you can experience Charles’ market commentary beginning at 7:00am central time, just prior to the Bond opening.

For Thursday

Still wary of the breaks based on bad news - volume is developing at higher prices, but the short side is still the bias.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
5 Jun:

Still watching the sellers

Volume was certainly developing lower. Afternoon trading on Tuesday showed support at the 1372 level; I'll look to see if open interest rose tomorrow morning. If so, the selling will continue.

ISM non-manufacturing and Productivity reports are due out Wednesday afternoon, Unemployment Situation is Friday

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
4 Jun:

Back From Finals And Vacation

Back from my break -

Though the S&P sold off - it came right back to the pivot - I'm not convinced the market will continue to go lower, But I can't exactly be bullish with some of the reports due out this week.

I would trade with a selling bias, but take profits once the sellers start backing off.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
3 Jun:

For Tuesday

Emini S&P
The 1382 Support area held as we rallied on higher volume today. Now upward momentum must break the low volume area of 1404. Volume was developing higher throughout the day. If the IB period shows signs of weakness (Low Volume) as the market goes lower, buyers will come in and take the market higher. If volume gets weak at 1404 were not going to push higher. Unless good fundamental news comes we'll head down to 1395 area.

Bonds
Volume was developing higher on the day breaking in the afternoon, we are siting at a significant support area and we'll need to see selling or the bonds will return to the mid 117's

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
13 May:



Upcoming Reports
Tuesday
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45ET
Import and Export Prices 8:30ET
Retail Sales 8:30ET
Redbook 8:55ET
Business Inventories 10:00ET
4-Week Bill Auction 1:00ET

Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00ET
Consumer Price Index 8:30ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30ET
Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30ET
Treasury International Capital 9:00ET
Industrial Production 9:15ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30ET
Housing Market Index 1:00ET
Money Supply 4:30ET

Friday
Housing Starts 8:30ET
Consumer Sentiment (p) 10:00ET

For Monday

We continue to see trading value lower prices in recent activity - Bias is on the short side.
Sell the rallies at resistance -

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
12 May:


Upcoming Reports
Monday
Treasury Budget 2:00ET

Tuesday
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45ET
Import and Export Prices 8:30ET
Retail Sales 8:30ET
Redbook 8:55ET
Business Inventories 10:00ET
4-Week Bill Auction 1:00ET

Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00ET
Consumer Price Index 8:30ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30ET
Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30ET
Treasury International Capital 9:00ET
Industrial Production 9:15ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30ET
Housing Market Index 1:00ET
Money Supply 4:30ET

Friday
Housing Starts 8:30ET
Consumer Sentiment (p) 10:00ET

For Friday

Prices are in an even distribution around the 1396 area. Bias to the short side. The big indication will be where volume collects before the opening and then the Initial balance.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
9 May:



Upcoming Reports
Friday
International Trade 8:30 ET
RBC CASH Index 9:00 ET

Final Exams Tonight

Forgive me - a bit busy- numbers will be back for Friday

For Wednesday

Very big up trend day - Volume collected at higher and higher prices all day.
Be wary however - Home Sales and Consumer Credit due out tomorrow.
May be a drag on the positive earnings reports lately.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
6 May:



Upcoming Reports
Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
Productivity and Costs 8:30 ET
Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET
10-Year Note Auction 1:00ET
Consumer Credit 3:00 ET

Thursday
BOE Announcement 7:00 ET
ECB Announcement 7:45 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Wholesale Trade 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET
3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00ET
6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00ET
30-Year Bond Auction 1:00ET
Money Supply 4:30 ET

Friday
International Trade 8:30 ET
RBC CASH Index 9:00 ET

For Tuesday

Monday sellers came in keeping the ES from reaching 1420. Volume is developing lower - what volume there is - very low trading volume off Fridays exhaustion. 1400 continues to hold. Bias to the downside but if volume accellerates higher - be a buyer on the low volume retracements.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
6 May:



Upcoming Reports
Tuesday
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Redbook 8:55 ET
4-Week Bill Auction 1:00ET
Treasury STRIPS 3:00 ET

Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
Productivity and Costs 8:30 ET
Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET
10-Year Note Auction 1:00ET
Consumer Credit 3:00 ET

Thursday
BOE Announcement 7:00 ET
ECB Announcement 7:45 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Wholesale Trade 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET
3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00ET
6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00ET
30-Year Bond Auction 1:00ET
Money Supply 4:30 ET

Friday
International Trade 8:30 ET
RBC CASH Index 9:00 ET

For Monday

We keep making higher highs - the next one has to move boyond the 1420 area.

The volume tells me that buyers keep winning out. The 1400 area should be traded as support - if sellers start accelerating don't take the buy - but if the volume is weak take the trade.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
5 May:



Upcoming Reports
Monday
ISM Non-Mfg Survey 10:00 ET
4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00ET
3-Month Bill Auction 1:00ET
6-Month Bill Auction 1:00ET

Tuesday
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Redbook 8:55 ET
4-Week Bill Auction 1:00ET
Treasury STRIPS 3:00 ET

Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
Productivity and Costs 8:30 ET
Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET
10-Year Note Auction 1:00ET
Consumer Credit 3:00 ET

Thursday
BOE Announcement 7:00 ET
ECB Announcement 7:45 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Wholesale Trade 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET
3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00ET
6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00ET
30-Year Bond Auction 1:00ET
Money Supply 4:30 ET

Friday
International Trade 8:30 ET
RBC CASH Index 9:00 ET

For Friday

Unemployment Friday

Comment by Charles (geard towards Bonds)
The market may have experienced a reversal today. The market did trade higher off the early news and got close to 118-04, a number that ahs controlled the Bond for a long time. 117-30 capped the rally and then the market began to trade sideways in anticipation of tomorrow’s NFP number. The ES got stronger and stronger and stronger and did breakout to a new high on its rally from 1309.50. The ES closed strong. So something will give on tomorrow’s news. Know the news and you have the trade.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for 2May:



Upcoming Reports:
Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
Factory Orders 10:00 ET

For Thusday

Unemployment Situation on Friday will be a prime mover.
Volume is skewed towards the low side as the weak rally off the FOMC announcement was rejected and sellers took over the market. Downside is the bias for the morning.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for 1May:


Upcoming Reports:
Thursday
Motor Vehicle Sales
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET
Money Supply 4:30 ET

Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
Factory Orders 10:00 ET

For Wednesday

FOMC Announcement Day!

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for 30April:


Upcoming Reports:
Wednesday
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET
GDP (advance)8:30 ET
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
FOMC Announcement 2:15 ET

Thursday
Motor Vehicle Sales
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET
Money Supply 4:30 ET

Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
Factory Orders 10:00 ET

For Tuesday

Did not trade much higher than the the 1402 area; there is a major resistance at 1407 - if we can find buyers we'll head much higher - the question is what is it going to take. A rate cut from the FOMC may facilitate this.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for 29 April:

Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday
FOMC Meeting Begins

ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Redbook 8:55 ET
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Wednesday
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET
GDP (advance)8:30 ET
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
FOMC Announcement 2:15 ET

Thursday
Motor Vehicle Sales
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET
Money Supply 4:30 ET

Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
Factory Orders 10:00 ET

Busy Week Ahead

For Monday:
The FOMC meets this week and Unemploymnent Situation is on Friday; events you can't miss.

THe emini finally got above 1400 on a late rally friday afternoon. Most of the volume Friday had been concentrated at the low 1390's. The last hour of the market had seen accelerating volume at 1398. Buys the dips if we can start Monday off by rallying through the 1400 area low volume. If we can make it past that area we'll start a climb up to 1420.


From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for 28 April:


Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday
FOMC Meeting Begins

ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Redbook 8:55 ET
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Wednesday
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET
GDP (advance)8:30 ET
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
FOMC Announcement 2:15 ET

Thursday
Motor Vehicle Sales
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET
Money Supply 4:30 ET

Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
Factory Orders 10:00 ET

For Friday

The volume trading for Thursday was concentrated at 1392.
Throughout the afternoon volume are accumulating at the higher end of the day's trading range. If volume continues to build as prices go higher then start buying the low volume pull backs. If the volume is slow in reaching highs sell against the resistance.

Consumer sentiment is likely to have a bearish impact. - JK


From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot - Support - Resistance Numbers for 25 April:



Upcoming Reports:
Friday
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

For Thursday

Volume continues to develop lower. Stick With That bias; sell the rallies.
Keeping it brief this evening. - JK

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot - Support - Resistance Numbers for 24 April:



Upcoming Reports:
Thursday:
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Help Wanted Index 10:00 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

For Wednesday

Earnings Reports are the primary movers of the eMini S&P for short term traders.
That's fundamental analysis, the news reports hit the wire to spark scalpers - but don't follow it. A major move to 1400 will be done only on exhaustion buying volume.
So far buyers can only bring the market back up to the pivot. The Sellers then take over.

The heaviest ares for trading have dropped steadily since Friday - I'll stick with that bias.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot - Support - Resistance Numbers for 23 April:


Upcoming Reports:
Wednesday:
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET

Thursday:
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Help Wanted Index 10:00 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

LAST DAY

Tuesday is the last days of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.

Join me in the TradeMaven Chatroom starting at 8:30 am ET
No password is necessary - Click here to enter!

Charlie's Comments:
The market traded according to our analysis until 116-04 was retested the second time. 116-04 proved to be good support and as the day progressed the shorts began to cover. This took the market to new intraday highs into the close. If the ES continues to trade sideways or lower, the Bond is set to trade higher. No news tomorrow to drive the trading. The focus should remain the direction of the ES. The recent low at 115-135 could have been the retest of the bracket’s lows from 2/25/08.

Josh's 2 Cents:
Low volume bounds the market around 1386. Volume is going to be attracted to that area. Look to trade the range aroung this area. Low volume moves to the north or sounth is going to be followed by a return to the mode - Volume accelerating at the edges should not be faded.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot - Support - Resistance Numbers for 22 April:



Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Redbook 8:55 ET
Existing Home Sales 10:00 ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index 10:00 ET

Wednesday:
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET

Thursday:
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Help Wanted Index 10:00 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

Day 5 of the OPEN HOUSE

Monday and Tuesday are the last days of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.

In this Chatroom you will be shown revolutionary new trading software that replicates internal market information, once only available to those standing on the trading floor. This software forms the basis for a new methodology based on the actions of the market's three major components: Volume, price, and time. The Inside Edge methodology integrates each of the component's activity into two screens that yield the market's direction, its edges, and when to enter and exit the trade in real-time! Let us show you how to make trading your business.

Join me in the TradeMaven Chatroom starting at 8:30 am ET
No password is necessary - Click here to enter!

For Monday -
It's all about selling pressure and where it comes in - if there is weak buying as we approach 1403 - the sellers will enter the market driving the price down to to the 1368 area. its all about the volume - and now the volume looks like it's building higher. buy the pull backs on low volume if the trend continues to go higher.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot - Support - Resistance Numbers for 21 April:


Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Redbook 8:55 ET
Existing Home Sales 10:00 ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index 10:00 ET

Wednesday:
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET

Thursday:
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Help Wanted Index 10:00 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

Open House Day 4

Charlie's Comments:
The Bonds continued its current move lower as expected and foretold in the analysis. Able to get our recommended shorts off too at advantageous levels. Eventually the Bond did hit our #2 support level before recovering into its close.

The ES rallied late in its session off of GOOG’s earnings and the retreated to the 116-24 area. IF the ES is sideways to higher overnight, wnt to sell the Bond tomorrow and see it 116-08/12 can be broken. No news on tap for tomorrow’ session. Focus should be the ES’s movement off late posted earnings reports.

Josh's 2 Cents:
Volume is early evening trading is building higher intimating a further early rally in the emini Friday Morning. Bias is to the upside for Friday.

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support and Resistance Numbers for 18 April:

Open House Day 3

Charlie's Comments:
News drives the market. The Bond caught negative news with the Ind. Production and Capacity Utilization numbers and sold. These numbers were supportive for the ES and the ES strengthened further post day session Bond with the release of IBM’s earnings. The economic news has gotten better than recently forecast. The economic slowdown may be starting to find its low. While only time will tell, we are starting to see economic numbers higher than forecast. Exports, tourism, agriculture, mining, energy and certain high tech companies have missed the slow down to date. A stronger economy mitigates the need to cut interest rates any more and allows the inflation news to move to the fore. Not much news on tomorrow’s schedule. This should yield at least one good sale tomorrow.

Josh's 2 cents:
Nice bullish day on Wednesday - Will it last? The volume will tell. Volume building at 1363 area will not hold and will start moving down. If low volume at 1363 area then as the price moves higher we are sure to see buyers come into the Emini S&P.
Fundamental News will have a marked effect -

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support and Resistance Numbers for 17 April:


Upcoming Reports:
Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Leading Indicators 10:00 ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

For Wednesday

Charlie's Comments:
Today’s market was driven by the 0830 ET news. Inflation was higher than forecast and the Bond and ES both sold off this news. The normal inverse relationship between the Bond and ES was put in abeyance today. At some point the contracts will separate, but haven’t seen many days this year where they have traded the fundamentals by themselves. Wednesday is a big news day. The focus today was inflation. I think tomorrow’s focus will shift to the economic activity news as CPI is a lagging indicator. PPI is a leading indicator and was out today. The inflation news is for real and a part of the regular news feed. It has been placed in a secondary role due to the Fed’s focus on the US’s economy. Will see how the news plays tomorrow.

Josh's 2 cents:
A bullish Producer Price Index report was met with substantial selling pressure -
Volume is still favoring the short side of the market.

We will continue with day 2 of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE on Wednesday morning at 7:30 am Central - www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven


From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support and Resistance Numbers for 16 April:


Upcoming Reports:
Wednesday
Consumer Price Index 8:30 ET
Housing Starts 8:30 ET
Industrial Production 9:15 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET
Beige Book 2:00 ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Leading Indicators 10:00 ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Not Out of the Woods Yet...

Mixed earning reports are keeping investors on their toes. Plenty more room to drop if some poor fundamentals come in. Gas prices at all time highs and Gold Rallying with the falling dollar = a breaking emini S&P. Volume continue to develop at lower prices - sell the rallies against the numbers.

Were going to be showcasing the 30-year Treasury Bond all this week in the TradeMaven Inside Edge room. Drop by anytime at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven -
Charlie Cochran and I will be giving our market commentary live through next Tuesday.

best
Josh

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support and Resistance Numbers for 15 April:



Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Producer Price Index 8:30 ET
Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 ET
Housing Market Index 1:00 ET

Wednesday
Consumer Price Index 8:30 ET
Housing Starts 8:30 ET
Industrial Production 9:15 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET
Beige Book 2:00 ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Leading Indicators 10:00 ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

For Monday, April 14th

Don't forget to upgrade to TradeMaven Version 4.3.2 at www.tmdownloads.com!

For Monday - there is bond to be a lot of mixed reports due out this week. Earnings reports always add uncertainty - Airline Mergers and Bank news seem bullish - but CPI and PPI as well as housing starts and manufacturing surveys are bound to be bearish.

Volume is still to the downside - my bias is bearish -


From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support and Resistance Numbers for 14 April:


Upcoming Reports:
Monday
Retail Sales 8:30 ET
Business Inventories 10:00 ET

Tuesday
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Producer Price Index 8:30 ET
Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 ET
Housing Market Index 1:00 ET

Wednesday
Consumer Price Index 8:30 ET
Housing Starts 8:30 ET
Industrial Production 9:15 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET
Beige Book 2:00 ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Leading Indicators 10:00 ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday

For Friday:
Despite the fact that retail sales are low, The Emini S&P is favoring higher prices while the Bonds are showing volume developing lower. It will be interesting how the Consumer Sentiment report will effect the S&P - I would think that the market will break on that news.

In any case with the trouble plaguing American Airlines likely to spread to other air carriers not to mention other unknowns in this market - it is unlikely buyers will wish to hold onto their positions over the weekend.

Look for the Friday afternoon sell-off

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support and Resistance Numbers for 11 April:

Upcoming Key Reports:
Friday
Import and Export Prices 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment (p) 10:00 ET

A Life Without You...

Thursday after the close Charlie Cochran will be presenting the TradeMaven Inside Edge 3-2-1 methodology for trading.

TradeMaven Inside Edge is a comprehensive trader’s education forum focused on e-Mini S&Ps and U.S. Treasury Bond Futures.

TradeMaven Inside Edge features the necessary analytics and execution information in one place to speed up your decision process, keep you on the right side of the market, and eliminate so much of the noise that surrounds trading today.

Please join me at 4:30pm EST / 3:30pm Central for a this seminar.
Follow this link: www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
No password or registration is needed.

For Thursday:
The break in the eMini S&P's today was done on some powerful selling. The market is still favoring lower prices. With the reports due out tomorrow (See below) I can only be thinking lower prices for the immeadiate future.

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support and Resistance Numbers for 10 April:


Upcoming Key Reports:
Thursday
International Trade 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Treasury Budget 2:00 ET

Friday
Import and Export Prices 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment (p) 10:00 ET

Market Profile Training Wednesday

For Wednesday,

I will be holding online training on how to use the market profile charting in the TradeMaven program Wednesday after the close. Market Profile reveals pricing patterns from any market as they develop. By effectively organizing price and time information, it is possible for traders to see which price areas the market is accepting or which ones it is rejecting…and adjust their trading styles accordingly.


Please join me at 4:30pm EST / 3:30pm Central for a demonstration.
Follow this link: www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
No password or registration is needed.

Market Analysis: The emini seems to be stuck around the 1372 pivot area; buyers keep coming in as prices dip to low 1360's. Buyers keep backing off at the resistance at the 1375 area - a rally through that means a rally to 1385. A range bound market provides plenty of opportunity. Look to the volume to give you your markat bias - if the market starts moving lower on high volume - look to sell the low volume rallies counter to the trend -

If you not sure what I mean - join me for the market profile training Wednesday afternoon.

See you then!

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support and Resistance Numbers for 9 April:


Upcoming Key Reports:
Wednesday
Wholesale Trade 10:00 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET

Thursday
International Trade 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Treasury Budget 2:00 ET

Friday
Import and Export Prices 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment (p) 10:00 ET

Back to the Pivot

The Rally Monday morning was expected given the pre-Regular Trading Hours favoring higher prices. Credit issues still drags the the outlook of the ecomony for the next several months.

Pending Home Sales will be a bearish number I believe, however the FOMC minutes will be released early tomorrow afternoon.

Thill then look for the volume to develop to the downside and sel the low volume rallies.

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support and Resistance Numbers for 8 April:


Upcoming Key Reports:
Tuesday
Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 ET
FOMC Minutes 2:00 ET

Wednesday
Wholesale Trade 10:00 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET

Thursday
International Trade 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Treasury Budget 2:00 ET

Friday
Import and Export Prices 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment (p) 10:00 ET

Starting to turn Bullish

For Monday

The emini S&P and related equity index futures recovered quite nicely from the Unemployment figures released Friday morning. Volume continue to show strength to the upside despite the weakness in the economy.

Follow the volume - if the day begins on a rally and volume accompanies the upswing trade on the low volume pull backs. Don't place buys if volume is coming in on the downward moves.


From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support and Resistance Numbers for 7 April:


Upcoming Key Reports:
Monday
Consumer Credit 3:00 ET

Tuesday
Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 ET
FOMC Minutes 2:00 ET

Wednesday
Wholesale Trade 10:00 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET

Thursday
International Trade 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Treasury Budget 2:00 ET

Friday
Import and Export Prices 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment (p) 10:00 ET

Unemployment Friday

For Friday:

The Unemployment Situation report will be released tomorrow at 7:30am Central. The is undoubtedly one of the most important reports of the month. Unemployment is on the rise and if it comes in lower than expected then will get a strong bear move.


From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers for 4 April:

For Thursday

For Thursday:

Higher Volume on the way up in the morning on Wednesday, followed by a sel of with volume favoring lower prices.
I really can't see how the unemployment reports over the next two days are going to fuel buying in the eMini S&P. It is more likely that these numbers will remind market participants of the state of the economy. It appears the Fed Chairman had the same effect on Wednesday.

Favoring the short side - but stick with the volume. ower prices on high volume - then sell the low volume rallies. If the rally comes with the volume, get out of the way.

best
Josh

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers for 3 April:

Upcoming Reports:
Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET

I Hate April Fools

For Wednesday:

Well the market played a huge April Fools on me; a rally of 33 points in the emini S&P in the regular trading hours.

Now I have been bearish for a while now, and given the state of the economy I will continue to be guarded on rallies - but clearly the buyers stepped up to the plate today.

Good numbers in ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending along with the start of a new quarter brought buyers into the equities. - But - Unemployment Friday conquers all. Some may think the worst is behind us; I'll continue to have doubts. (Bear Sterns anyone?)

Bottom line follow the volume - the market kept going higher on volume today: Wednesday's pre-market trading will be a clue. If the market starts trading lower on high volume in the morning - we'll head down, If higher prices on higher volume then this bull run will continue.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers for 2 April:

Upcoming Reports:
Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 ET
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET

For Tuesday

For Tuesday,

The equity indexes rose a bit Monday but still closed on a break with volume skewed towards lower prices - again still on the short side of the market.

Construction Spending and the ISM Manufacturing will not support the market - so don't be an April Fool - if you take a buy cover profits quickly; a short may be held for a longer.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers for 1 April:


Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET

Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 ET
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET

For Monday

Expect the downward trend to continue - Headlines still shows the economy is mired in quicksand and The Fed is looking to overhaul the market regulation - but that is another can of worms.

For now expect the volume to follow the short side. Sell the rallies.

Best
Josh


From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers for 31 Mar:


Upcoming Reports:
Monday
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET

Tuesday
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET

Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 ET
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET

Stunted Growth

For Friday:

The Gross Domestic Product was described as "feeble." Need I say more about the economic outlook?

I've been saying trade from the short side for a while now and the outlook has not changed. Sell Rallies in the eMini S&P; Buy the dips in the Euro and the Gold.

Everyday since Monday's existing home sales report - the volume has been to the short side. The afternoon rallies over the past three days have all been on lower volume. Consumer Sentiment Friday morning will not be bullish...

Additionally, the volume favors LOWER prices in the S&Ps and the Russel. A low volume rally is ripe for the picking... er, selling.

Have A Great Weekend!
Josh

Upcoming Reports:
Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support/Resistance for 27 Mar:

The Sinking Ship

For Thursday:

Thursday Afternoon is Training Time - Join me at 3:30pm Central/4:30 Eastern for TradeMaven Software Training! I will be discussing how to use the Automated Order Strategies in the Program to show you how to set up your automatic stops and profit target.

We'll also talk about the Auction Market Process and a little Futures 101.
Join me at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven - no registration is necessary.

Market Analysis

The Market went along its true trend today - Down - economic news tomorrow will not support the market to sell the rallies at resistance - If we break through a support level then that level will become resistance - I'll explain why in my webinar -

best
Josh



From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support/Resistance for 27 Mar:


Upcoming Reports:
Thursday:
GDP (final) 8:30 ET
Corporate Profits 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

Heavy on the Way Down, Light on the Way Up

For Wednesday:

Roger Felton will be hosting a seminar tomorrow showcasing his automated trading system "OttO."

He will be giving an overview of "OttO's" operation and talk about automated trading systems in the emini markets - there will be a chance to see his system in action.

Come see this presentation Wednesday, Mar 26th at 4:30pm ET - 3:30pm Central
To Register for this seminar - click here http://www.feltontrading.com/

You will also get the opportunity to see "Otto" for an entire week after this seminar. Felton Trading will set you up for a free trial in their chatroom. Check it out!

Market Analysis

The eMini's broke on Consumer Confidence this morning. This is to be expected, there is a lot to be bearish about and that is why I'll sell the rallies when I can. New Home Sales are out tomorrow and I'll bet the report is not as good as Existing Home Sales were as reported on Monday. The clear reason why home sales were up was that these houses are going for CHEAP!



Not something to hold your hopes to, but it seems in General, the market is.

The downward move on the open was high volume - the midday to afternoon rally was low volume - big money is waiting for bad news to sell.



From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support/Resistance for 26 Mar:


Upcoming Reports:
Wednesday:
New Home Sales 10:00 ET

Thursday:
GDP (final) 8:30 ET
Corporate Profits 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

Just When You Thought It Was Safe...

"Hey, things are turning around. Everything is going OK! Smooth sailing from here. I think I just may go for a swim."

If we have learned anything from watching Horror Movies (And I'd like to think I have) it is these three things"

1. If you are the only one in the house when the tense music starts, you're next!

2. If you are having inappropriate teenage "relations" - there are DIRE CONSEQUENCES! (you're next)

3. Never go swimming until after the big shark explodes. (or you'll be next!") (see a pattern?)

Even if the Fed Chairman himself went on MAD MONEY and said, "I was mistaken, the economy is in great shape and instead of a tax break everyone is getting a new iPod for the new economic stimulus package."

I would still watch out for the market plunge -

New Home Sales may be up, but there is quite a supply of cheap new houses - remember my lesson on supply and demand. Additionally, there are over a million foreclosures on the horizon to keep the housing market in a slump.

Just like in the horror films - there is always one more trick up the homicidal maniac's sleeve - so be careful -

Sell the rallies - buy the breaks.

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support/Resistance for 25 Mar:

Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday:
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Wednesday:
New Home Sales 10:00 ET

Thursday:
GDP (final) 8:30 ET
Corporate Profits 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

The Bad News and The Good News

The media is still crying the "THE SKY IS FALLING" and maybe they are right.

Despite the rally we have seen in the S&P emini we are sitting on a very shaky economy. Still everything will be fine always remember the pendulum swings both ways. 

Until we get the true upswing however my money is still on the short side of the market. Sell the rallies and buy the breaks.

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support/Resistance for 24 Mar:

Upcoming Reports:

Monday

Existing Home Sales 10:00 ET

4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00ET

Tuesday:
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Wednesday:
New Home Sales 10:00 ET

Thursday:
GDP (final) 8:30 ET
Corporate Profits 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

Stick with the trend

The pullback today in the eMini S&P and other equity indexes was not a big surprise given the skittish outlook on the markets in the news. This indicates to me that the overall trend will continue its downward moves. Sell the rallies against the numbers -

Reports:
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Leading Indicators 10:00 ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 ET

Nothing huge report wise tomorrow, but the reports do have an effect on the markets - I can't believe any will support prices, they will only confirm the downtrend

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot Support and Resistance for 20 Mar:

75 bp cut

Yes, well the the rumor mill was right a 75 bp cut, which gives the fed a bit of a reserve to cut rae again if needed.

Jobless Claims and Philly Fed on Thursday with Friday starting a three-day weekend.

From the TradeMaven Software - Pivot Support and Resistance for 19 Mar:

When A Bear Smells Like a Fish

The big question on everybody's mind is, "After Bear Sterns, who's next?" How many buyers are out there ? no really...

The Fed Announcement Tomorrow will cut rates - consensus is 75 bp cut! eMinis tend to rally on this expectation; But there are not a lot of buyers at higher prices - volume still shows the market favoring lower prices -

The Fed's actions may give the markets a boost, but the reality is that the economy needs more than these emergency actions.

If anyone is interested call me about placing a hedge for their own portfolios....

From the TradeMaven Software - Pivot Support and Resistance for 18 Mar:

"No Data" is really data?

For Monday,

You may notice that the S4 for the Russell has "no Data" in that cell. This is because for the time periods that I use there is no volume data this low. What does this indicate - new lower lows.

In fact I had to set the ES Charts way back to get data to derive volume wieghted S&R areas - trade with the trend, sell rallies against the numbers.

The Fed is rumored to lower raite this week - well see if we get into a buy the rumor, sell the fact situation -

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for 17 Feb:

E-mini Rollover to Jun

Just a reminder - The emini S&P and Russell 2000 will rollover to the Jun contract at the open of the session.

To chage the contract expiration in TradeMaven:
1. Click on the "Trading" Menu
2. Then Click on "Profiles"
3. The Profile Logon mini-window will pop up -
4. Use the drop-down menu on "Contract Expritation to CHange the Month.
5. It should Read M8 for sim traders and Esignal users - or JUN08 for PATS users.


For Thursday - the Rally up to 1335 was nice but short lived - volume skewed to the downside in the afternoon for the eMini S&P - looking for the market to trade lower tomorrow - sell the rallies.

I am out of town tomorrow so expect the blog to be updated next on Sunday evening.

From the TradeMaven Software, Support and Resistance by Volume for Thursday 13 Mar:

The Turnaround and the MidTerm Exam

Will this rally continue? - the magic 8 ball says "probably, yes"

Tuesday Afternoon rallies came after the emini S&P traders were consistently finding value at higher prices throughout the morning. Volume skewed to the upside points to an "up" move.

Look for price to hover around 1323 through the night then break in the hours before the opening. If the move is on low volume it will be a good buy.

Emini Rollover to Jun Contract to Jun Contract -

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot Support and Resistance for 12 Mar:

Open House Last Day

The Inside Edge Class Begins Tuesday
Tuesday, March 11th is the LAST day of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.

Join us in the Chatroom Tomorrow (Tuesday) morning at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven .
No password is needed -

Participants for the Afternoon Training Class will be given a password during the trading session.

Sample Research by Charles Cochran:

Another strong day up in the Bond. The focus has shifted back to recession. The news for equities was uniformly bad over the weekend. Crude traded to 107.00+ too. Consumer spending will be pressured some more. It takes positive news to get to the top of a bracket. If the Bond starts trading above 119-00, you can make a case for an uptrend. Little in the way of news tomorrow. Trade deficit has settled into around 60.0 Byn a month. A 10Y auction on Thursday should keep the Dealer community on the sidelines too. So think the Bond can trade higher into the auction with usual twists and turns. AS l;ong as the ES is being sold, I want to be long the Bond.

F1 Comments: The Bond is getting close to its bracket high at 119-00, basis June. If 119-00 changes from resistance to support, I will be able to make the case for an uptrend.

F2 Comments: The ES weakened and the Bond rallied. In fact, you could make the case that the Bond was actually more volatile than the ES, especially when the Bond rallied to 118-24+. The selling into the close was probably long liquidation giving the swings off the news. The close was strong for the day’s range too. The key tomorrow will be whether the market can take out 119-00 or not. It is the top of the current bracket. If it holds, the market is set to drift back into the middle of the bracket. Down to news and ES’s reaction to this news. Tomorrow’s calendar is light w/only Trade Deficit estimated at -60.0Byn. If the OVN news holds the ES sideways to lower, we want to get long tomorrow and see if 119-00 can be taken out. IF not, will consider a short. Aggressive buy is 118-09 OB. Back up buy is 118-01 OB. Market has to take out 118-20 then 118-27 to stick with this trade. Failure to take out and hold 118-27 will turn us to the short side of the market.

F4 Comments: Be a buyer on ES weakness. Multiple buying opportunities.

From the Trademaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot/Support and Resistance for Tuesday:

The Inside Edge Class Begins Tuesday

Monday, March 10th is the 5th day of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.
Join us in the Chatroom Tomorrow (Monday) morning at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven .
No password is needed -

Sample Research by Charles Cochran:

Another extremely tough day to trade. The news was bullish. The Bond sold. The flip flops in the slant of the news and reactions to such have led to very large intraday swings and retracements in the Bond market. Recession or inflation is the issue and it hasn’t been resolved to anyone’s satisfaction. The Bond’s soft close and structure does favor lower prices without news and renewed selling in the ES. Doubt if this week will resolve the news flip flops. Maybe the ES’s direction will.

F1 Comments: Market’s bias remains a bracket bounded by 115-00 and 119-00, basis June. The market has been trading between these levels in a day or two. Volatility is very high to say the least.

F2 Comments: It was a news day trade. The Bond reacted as one would expect w/the unemployment news. 118-12 held on the first rally up and the selling pressure steadily built into the ES’s day session opening. When the ES rallied off its opening, the Bond broke hitting 116-05 before buyers were found. The rest of the day was spent between 116-24 and 117-16 w/a close at 117-02. No scheduled news to drive Monday’s trading. Down to the weekend financial press and the ES’s reaction to this news. IF the ES is higher over the weekend, we want to sell the Bond and see if 116-16/20 can be taken out. If the ES is lower, we can buy too. First buy zone will be 116-21/25 followed by 116-07 OB.

F4 Comments: Analysis was to trade the news. Worked for 1st two trades of the day. Then the Bond traded counter to the early news.Another extremely tough day to trade. The news was bullish. The Bond sold. The flip flops in the slant of the news and reactions to such have led to very large intraday swings and retracements in the Bond market. Recession or inflation is the issue and it hasn’t been resolved to anyone’s satisfaction. The Bond’s soft close and structure does favor lower prices without news and renewed selling in the ES. Doubt if this week will resolve the news flip flops. Maybe the ES’s direction will.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot/Support and Resistance for Mon, 10 Mar:

Unemployment Friday

Friday, March 7th is the 4th day of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.

AND ALSO UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION announced at 7:30 am CT

Join us in the Chatroom Tomorrow (Thursday) morning at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven .
No password is needed -

Sample Research by Charles Cochran:

Well the market met our expectations for a sideways day as it set up for tomorrow’s Unemployment news. The high/low for the month almost always comes off the release of these numbers as they impact every money manager’s portfolio both domestically and abroad. Not much one can do but await the news and plan on an entry w/the news on the first reaction after the news. If the high/low holds on the retest after the setback, exit this trade. The inflation argument will be reinforced, if NFP come in above 65K and the slowing economy, if the number comes in below zero. The swing from one side of the securities boat to the other at a $1000 a pop in the Bond has become a regular occurrence as the news changes every 2-3 days. Down to tomorrow’s news.

F1 Comments: Market remains in a bracket. IF 115-00 basis June is taken out, the bias will change to a downtrend.

F2 Comments: The ES closed on new intraday lows which should encourage buying in the OVN Bond session. The Bond has been run down into tomorrow’s Unemployment news. The news focus has been switching from recession to inflation. Tomorrow’s news will probably not change these flip flops. The market has taken on a paranoid posture to the news. Every headline is out to break a money manager’s performance and the name of the game has become exit as fast as you can leading to full point reactions to headlines/news. The Unemployment news can cause 3 point days. The market has been run down in expectation of a higher than forecast NFP number. If the market catches negative news doesn’t break, a short covering rally should be expected. Down to the news. NFP is expected at 25-40K. Want to trade the first correction after the news with an exit, if the high/low off the news isn’t taken out.

F4 Comments: Analysis was to be a seller. Multiple sell opportunities all session.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot/Support and Resistance for Fri, 7 Mar:

OPEN HOUSE DAY 3

Thursday, March 6th is the 3rd day of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.

Join us in the Chatroom Tomorrow (Thursday) morning at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven .
No password is needed -

Sample Research by Charles Cochran:

Another day of hard selling in spite of split news. The Factory Order numbers were ignored and ISM Services drove the trading. In some news articles the service/government sectors were cited as up to 90% of the economy. If so, then the soft landing argument was strengthened. And if a soft landing, then inflation will not be wrung out of the world’s economy. 7% growth rates in China and India are still viewed as the two economies that will prevent the world from falling into a recession. The top of the bracket at 119-00 basis June held. And now the bottom of the bracket is within reach. And there is Friday’s news that is influencing the trading. The NFP number is either higher than currently forecast or inflation is trumping a slowing economy.

F1 Comments: Market remains in a bracket and poised to retest support at 115-00, basis June. If 115-00 comes out, will change the call from a bracket to a downtrend.

F2 Comments: The Bond got whacked again and again on news that could have been taken the Bond up. The market’s focus is on inflation after last Friday’s rally when the focus shifted to the economy. Bernanke’s concern over the economy has taken back seat for the last two days. Some new s to influence tomorrow’s trading, but Friday’s news could hold the market in a range too, if the selling doesn’t get started early in tomorrow’s session. Jobless Claims is expected at 360K and Pending Home Sales at -1.0%. If tomorrow’s selling doesn’t get started early and produce follow through selling, I would expect that some shorts will cover. Our first recommended trade tomorrow is a sale. 1st sell zone is 116-19/23 and a back up sell at 116-27/31. If 116-06 or the OVN session low holds, cover. OK to buy too, if the market can’t take out 116-06 or OVN session lows hold. Exit if 116-24/289 is then rejected.

F4 Comments: Analysis was to sell 117-23 OB w/a back up sell at 117-27/31. OVN session high was 117-30.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot/Support and Resistance for Thurs, 6 Mar:

Free Trial Week Day 2

Day 2 of the TradeMaven Inside Edge Trial week is Wednesday.

After the close I will be giving a seminar on Understanding Market Profile.

Here is a sample of the research our participants receive on a daily basis as part of the TradeMaven Inside Edge:

From Charles Cochran - Interesting day. Market tried to trade higher all day until the heavy selling late in the session when the Bond broke hard hitting 117-065 before the selling was over. I couldn’t find any news to tie to the selling. The bracket held 2 days ago and those that saw that hit the bids all the way down after lunch. The close was weak. If the ES doesn’t sell off in the OVN session, want to be a seller for tomorrow’s first trade. Some news to drive the trading—ADP Employment Index and ISM Services should be the market’s focus.

F1 Comments: The top of the bracket basis June at 119-00±. Market’s bias remains a bracket, perhaps a downtrend in a bracket, if the selling continues tomorrow.

F2 Comments: Will tomorrow bring more selling? The question of the moment. Couldn’t find any news to tie to the selling. Someone entered the market in size and it showed. When 118-11 held on the rebound, the selling accelerated and didn’t stop until 117-065 was touched. Short covering closed the market at 117-15. Could see some new buying OVN too, if the equity market news brings in new selling in the ES, the Bond can rally back. Some news tomorrow that could affect prices. ADP’s Private Sector Employment number is expected at 18,000 and ISM Services at 48.5. If the ES is sideways, to higher, want to sell 117-23 OB. Preferred sell zone is 117-27/31. May not get there. If 117-8/12 holds on the retest, OK to get long w/an exit, if 117-24/28 is then rejected.

F3 Comments: Analysis was to buy 118-01/05. Multiple buy opportunities throughout the session.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Wednesday 5 March:

TradeMaven Inside Edge Free Week

Tuesday, March 4th is the start of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.

Join us in the Chatroom Tomorrow (Tuesday) morning at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven .
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TradeMaven Inside Edge is a comprehensive trader’s education forum focused on e-Mini S&Ps and U.S. Treasury Bond Futures.

TradeMaven Inside Edge features the necessary analytics and execution information in one place to speed up your decision process, keep you on the right side of the market, and eliminate so much of the noise that surrounds trading today.

This unique forum is the brainchild of Charles Cochran – a trading pro who has spent the last 15 years fine-tuning a proven methodology that eliminates extraneous information and concentrates on the market activity that matters: the market activity that foretells the market's next move.


For Tuesday:
The eMini S&P may have bottomed out today as after the low the market started to favor higher prices. A stong move above 1335 area will be the sign of a bul move - if so, buy breaks.

From the TradeMaven Software - Volume Weighted Support and Resistance for Tuesday, March 4th:

Leap Year

For Friday,

Volume over Thursday continues to develop lower and lower in the eMini S&P - a pop up to 1363 area on low volume looks like a great opportunity to sell. When the market trades more at lower prices, take the hint - sell the rallies.

Upcoming Reports:
Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 7:30 CT
NAPM-Chicago 8:45 CT
Consumer Sentiment 9:00 CT

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Fri, 29 Feb:

For Thursday

I will be holding TradeMaven Software Training Thursday at 4:30 ET/3:30 Central.

Come and join us at 4:30 ET at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven -
no password will be needed at that time.

For Thursday,
We might be getting a bit of a reversalin the eMini S&P - market volume is collecting lower since it returned to the 1375 area Wednesday afternoon. If we break lower sell rallies - if not look for the market to challenge Wednesday highs.


Upcoming Reports:
Thursday:
GDP (preliminary) 7:30 CT
Jobless Claims 7:30 CT
EIA Natural Gas Report 9:30 CT

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 7:30 CT
NAPM-Chicago 8:45 CT
Consumer Sentiment 9:00 CT

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Thurs, 28 Feb:

For Wednesday

Wednesday we will continue our training classes with the explanation of the 3-2-1 Method of the TradeMaven Inside Edge at 4:30 ET/3:30 Central.

Come and join us at 4:30 ET at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven -
no password will be needed at that time.

For Wednesday,
The upward trend continued today in the eMini S&P and volume is still favoring higher prices - a pullback to the 1375 area on low volume will be a good buy point. - the retracement is likely to occur on news - becarefull when trading in front of the reports - New Home Sales is most likely to have a bearish effect - no big surprise there...JK


Upcoming Reports:
Wednesday:
MBA Purchase Applications 6:00 CT
Durable Goods Orders 7:30 CT
New Home Sales 9:00 CT
EIA Petroleum Status Report 9:30 CT

Thursday:
GDP (preliminary) 7:30 CT
Jobless Claims 7:30 CT
EIA Natural Gas Report 9:30 CT

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 7:30 CT
NAPM-Chicago 8:45 CT
Consumer Sentiment 9:00 CT

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Wed, 27 Feb:

Tuesday is Market Profile Day!

Tuesday we will give an encore of our Market Profile Class at 4:30 ET/3:30 Central.

Come and join us at 4:30 ET at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven -
no password will be needed at that time.

For Tuesday,
Monday afternoon saw fast buying followed my a market favoring higher prices -
1369.25 was the high of the 20th in the eMini S&P - so if this is going to turn into a bull trend - 1369 is going to be the key buy level -


Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday:
Producer Price Index 7:30 CT
Consumer Confidence 9:00 CT

Wednesday:
MBA Purchase Applications 6:00 CT
Durable Goods Orders 7:30 CT
New Home Sales 9:00 CT
EIA Petroleum Status Report 9:30 CT

Thursday:
GDP (preliminary) 7:30 CT
Jobless Claims 7:30 CT
EIA Natural Gas Report 9:30 CT

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 7:30 CT
NAPM-Chicago 8:45 CT
Consumer Sentiment 9:00 CT

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Tuesday, 26 Feb:

A Big Week

TradeMaven will Be holding plenty of training events this week:
Tuesday we will give an encore of our Market Profile Class at 4:30 ET/3:30 Central.

Wednesday we are giving an overview if the TradeMaven Inside Edge Program. I wil also be giving software familiarization training on Thursday.

Come and join us at 4:30 ET each day at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven -

no password will be needed at that time.

For Monday,
Friday's last minute counter trend rally was not because there was a lot of buying - there were very few market participants - the majority of the market favors lower prices for the eMini S&P - so follow the trend DOWN, sel the rallies against the resistance numbers below.

thanks
Josh

Upcoming Reports:
Monday:
Existing Home Sales 9:00 CT

Tuesday:
Producer Price Index 7:30 CT
Consumer Confidence 9:00 cT

Wednesday:
MBA Purchase Applications 6:00 CT
Durable Goods Orders 7:30 CT
New Home Sales 9:00 CT
EIA Petroleum Status Report 9:30 CT

Thursday:
GDP (preliminary) 7:30 CT
Jobless Claims 7:30 CT
EIA Natural Gas Report 9:30 CT

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 7:30 CT
NAPM-Chicago 8:45 CT
Consumer Sentiment 9:00 CT

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Monday, 25 Feb:


Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. TradeMaven Inside Edge and this information is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge opr this information is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.