For Tuesday

For Tuesday,

The equity indexes rose a bit Monday but still closed on a break with volume skewed towards lower prices - again still on the short side of the market.

Construction Spending and the ISM Manufacturing will not support the market - so don't be an April Fool - if you take a buy cover profits quickly; a short may be held for a longer.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers for 1 April:


Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET

Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 ET
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET

For Monday

Expect the downward trend to continue - Headlines still shows the economy is mired in quicksand and The Fed is looking to overhaul the market regulation - but that is another can of worms.

For now expect the volume to follow the short side. Sell the rallies.

Best
Josh


From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers for 31 Mar:


Upcoming Reports:
Monday
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET

Tuesday
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET

Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 ET
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Friday
Employment Situation 8:30 ET

Stunted Growth

For Friday:

The Gross Domestic Product was described as "feeble." Need I say more about the economic outlook?

I've been saying trade from the short side for a while now and the outlook has not changed. Sell Rallies in the eMini S&P; Buy the dips in the Euro and the Gold.

Everyday since Monday's existing home sales report - the volume has been to the short side. The afternoon rallies over the past three days have all been on lower volume. Consumer Sentiment Friday morning will not be bullish...

Additionally, the volume favors LOWER prices in the S&Ps and the Russel. A low volume rally is ripe for the picking... er, selling.

Have A Great Weekend!
Josh

Upcoming Reports:
Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support/Resistance for 27 Mar:

The Sinking Ship

For Thursday:

Thursday Afternoon is Training Time - Join me at 3:30pm Central/4:30 Eastern for TradeMaven Software Training! I will be discussing how to use the Automated Order Strategies in the Program to show you how to set up your automatic stops and profit target.

We'll also talk about the Auction Market Process and a little Futures 101.
Join me at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven - no registration is necessary.

Market Analysis

The Market went along its true trend today - Down - economic news tomorrow will not support the market to sell the rallies at resistance - If we break through a support level then that level will become resistance - I'll explain why in my webinar -

best
Josh



From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support/Resistance for 27 Mar:


Upcoming Reports:
Thursday:
GDP (final) 8:30 ET
Corporate Profits 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

Heavy on the Way Down, Light on the Way Up

For Wednesday:

Roger Felton will be hosting a seminar tomorrow showcasing his automated trading system "OttO."

He will be giving an overview of "OttO's" operation and talk about automated trading systems in the emini markets - there will be a chance to see his system in action.

Come see this presentation Wednesday, Mar 26th at 4:30pm ET - 3:30pm Central
To Register for this seminar - click here http://www.feltontrading.com/

You will also get the opportunity to see "Otto" for an entire week after this seminar. Felton Trading will set you up for a free trial in their chatroom. Check it out!

Market Analysis

The eMini's broke on Consumer Confidence this morning. This is to be expected, there is a lot to be bearish about and that is why I'll sell the rallies when I can. New Home Sales are out tomorrow and I'll bet the report is not as good as Existing Home Sales were as reported on Monday. The clear reason why home sales were up was that these houses are going for CHEAP!



Not something to hold your hopes to, but it seems in General, the market is.

The downward move on the open was high volume - the midday to afternoon rally was low volume - big money is waiting for bad news to sell.



From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support/Resistance for 26 Mar:


Upcoming Reports:
Wednesday:
New Home Sales 10:00 ET

Thursday:
GDP (final) 8:30 ET
Corporate Profits 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

Just When You Thought It Was Safe...

"Hey, things are turning around. Everything is going OK! Smooth sailing from here. I think I just may go for a swim."

If we have learned anything from watching Horror Movies (And I'd like to think I have) it is these three things"

1. If you are the only one in the house when the tense music starts, you're next!

2. If you are having inappropriate teenage "relations" - there are DIRE CONSEQUENCES! (you're next)

3. Never go swimming until after the big shark explodes. (or you'll be next!") (see a pattern?)

Even if the Fed Chairman himself went on MAD MONEY and said, "I was mistaken, the economy is in great shape and instead of a tax break everyone is getting a new iPod for the new economic stimulus package."

I would still watch out for the market plunge -

New Home Sales may be up, but there is quite a supply of cheap new houses - remember my lesson on supply and demand. Additionally, there are over a million foreclosures on the horizon to keep the housing market in a slump.

Just like in the horror films - there is always one more trick up the homicidal maniac's sleeve - so be careful -

Sell the rallies - buy the breaks.

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support/Resistance for 25 Mar:

Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday:
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Wednesday:
New Home Sales 10:00 ET

Thursday:
GDP (final) 8:30 ET
Corporate Profits 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

The Bad News and The Good News

The media is still crying the "THE SKY IS FALLING" and maybe they are right.

Despite the rally we have seen in the S&P emini we are sitting on a very shaky economy. Still everything will be fine always remember the pendulum swings both ways. 

Until we get the true upswing however my money is still on the short side of the market. Sell the rallies and buy the breaks.

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot/Support/Resistance for 24 Mar:

Upcoming Reports:

Monday

Existing Home Sales 10:00 ET

4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00ET

Tuesday:
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Wednesday:
New Home Sales 10:00 ET

Thursday:
GDP (final) 8:30 ET
Corporate Profits 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

Stick with the trend

The pullback today in the eMini S&P and other equity indexes was not a big surprise given the skittish outlook on the markets in the news. This indicates to me that the overall trend will continue its downward moves. Sell the rallies against the numbers -

Reports:
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Leading Indicators 10:00 ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 ET

Nothing huge report wise tomorrow, but the reports do have an effect on the markets - I can't believe any will support prices, they will only confirm the downtrend

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot Support and Resistance for 20 Mar:

75 bp cut

Yes, well the the rumor mill was right a 75 bp cut, which gives the fed a bit of a reserve to cut rae again if needed.

Jobless Claims and Philly Fed on Thursday with Friday starting a three-day weekend.

From the TradeMaven Software - Pivot Support and Resistance for 19 Mar:

When A Bear Smells Like a Fish

The big question on everybody's mind is, "After Bear Sterns, who's next?" How many buyers are out there ? no really...

The Fed Announcement Tomorrow will cut rates - consensus is 75 bp cut! eMinis tend to rally on this expectation; But there are not a lot of buyers at higher prices - volume still shows the market favoring lower prices -

The Fed's actions may give the markets a boost, but the reality is that the economy needs more than these emergency actions.

If anyone is interested call me about placing a hedge for their own portfolios....

From the TradeMaven Software - Pivot Support and Resistance for 18 Mar:

"No Data" is really data?

For Monday,

You may notice that the S4 for the Russell has "no Data" in that cell. This is because for the time periods that I use there is no volume data this low. What does this indicate - new lower lows.

In fact I had to set the ES Charts way back to get data to derive volume wieghted S&R areas - trade with the trend, sell rallies against the numbers.

The Fed is rumored to lower raite this week - well see if we get into a buy the rumor, sell the fact situation -

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for 17 Feb:

E-mini Rollover to Jun

Just a reminder - The emini S&P and Russell 2000 will rollover to the Jun contract at the open of the session.

To chage the contract expiration in TradeMaven:
1. Click on the "Trading" Menu
2. Then Click on "Profiles"
3. The Profile Logon mini-window will pop up -
4. Use the drop-down menu on "Contract Expritation to CHange the Month.
5. It should Read M8 for sim traders and Esignal users - or JUN08 for PATS users.


For Thursday - the Rally up to 1335 was nice but short lived - volume skewed to the downside in the afternoon for the eMini S&P - looking for the market to trade lower tomorrow - sell the rallies.

I am out of town tomorrow so expect the blog to be updated next on Sunday evening.

From the TradeMaven Software, Support and Resistance by Volume for Thursday 13 Mar:

The Turnaround and the MidTerm Exam

Will this rally continue? - the magic 8 ball says "probably, yes"

Tuesday Afternoon rallies came after the emini S&P traders were consistently finding value at higher prices throughout the morning. Volume skewed to the upside points to an "up" move.

Look for price to hover around 1323 through the night then break in the hours before the opening. If the move is on low volume it will be a good buy.

Emini Rollover to Jun Contract to Jun Contract -

From the TradeMaven Software, Pivot Support and Resistance for 12 Mar:

Open House Last Day

The Inside Edge Class Begins Tuesday
Tuesday, March 11th is the LAST day of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.

Join us in the Chatroom Tomorrow (Tuesday) morning at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven .
No password is needed -

Participants for the Afternoon Training Class will be given a password during the trading session.

Sample Research by Charles Cochran:

Another strong day up in the Bond. The focus has shifted back to recession. The news for equities was uniformly bad over the weekend. Crude traded to 107.00+ too. Consumer spending will be pressured some more. It takes positive news to get to the top of a bracket. If the Bond starts trading above 119-00, you can make a case for an uptrend. Little in the way of news tomorrow. Trade deficit has settled into around 60.0 Byn a month. A 10Y auction on Thursday should keep the Dealer community on the sidelines too. So think the Bond can trade higher into the auction with usual twists and turns. AS l;ong as the ES is being sold, I want to be long the Bond.

F1 Comments: The Bond is getting close to its bracket high at 119-00, basis June. If 119-00 changes from resistance to support, I will be able to make the case for an uptrend.

F2 Comments: The ES weakened and the Bond rallied. In fact, you could make the case that the Bond was actually more volatile than the ES, especially when the Bond rallied to 118-24+. The selling into the close was probably long liquidation giving the swings off the news. The close was strong for the day’s range too. The key tomorrow will be whether the market can take out 119-00 or not. It is the top of the current bracket. If it holds, the market is set to drift back into the middle of the bracket. Down to news and ES’s reaction to this news. Tomorrow’s calendar is light w/only Trade Deficit estimated at -60.0Byn. If the OVN news holds the ES sideways to lower, we want to get long tomorrow and see if 119-00 can be taken out. IF not, will consider a short. Aggressive buy is 118-09 OB. Back up buy is 118-01 OB. Market has to take out 118-20 then 118-27 to stick with this trade. Failure to take out and hold 118-27 will turn us to the short side of the market.

F4 Comments: Be a buyer on ES weakness. Multiple buying opportunities.

From the Trademaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot/Support and Resistance for Tuesday:

The Inside Edge Class Begins Tuesday

Monday, March 10th is the 5th day of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.
Join us in the Chatroom Tomorrow (Monday) morning at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven .
No password is needed -

Sample Research by Charles Cochran:

Another extremely tough day to trade. The news was bullish. The Bond sold. The flip flops in the slant of the news and reactions to such have led to very large intraday swings and retracements in the Bond market. Recession or inflation is the issue and it hasn’t been resolved to anyone’s satisfaction. The Bond’s soft close and structure does favor lower prices without news and renewed selling in the ES. Doubt if this week will resolve the news flip flops. Maybe the ES’s direction will.

F1 Comments: Market’s bias remains a bracket bounded by 115-00 and 119-00, basis June. The market has been trading between these levels in a day or two. Volatility is very high to say the least.

F2 Comments: It was a news day trade. The Bond reacted as one would expect w/the unemployment news. 118-12 held on the first rally up and the selling pressure steadily built into the ES’s day session opening. When the ES rallied off its opening, the Bond broke hitting 116-05 before buyers were found. The rest of the day was spent between 116-24 and 117-16 w/a close at 117-02. No scheduled news to drive Monday’s trading. Down to the weekend financial press and the ES’s reaction to this news. IF the ES is higher over the weekend, we want to sell the Bond and see if 116-16/20 can be taken out. If the ES is lower, we can buy too. First buy zone will be 116-21/25 followed by 116-07 OB.

F4 Comments: Analysis was to trade the news. Worked for 1st two trades of the day. Then the Bond traded counter to the early news.Another extremely tough day to trade. The news was bullish. The Bond sold. The flip flops in the slant of the news and reactions to such have led to very large intraday swings and retracements in the Bond market. Recession or inflation is the issue and it hasn’t been resolved to anyone’s satisfaction. The Bond’s soft close and structure does favor lower prices without news and renewed selling in the ES. Doubt if this week will resolve the news flip flops. Maybe the ES’s direction will.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot/Support and Resistance for Mon, 10 Mar:

Unemployment Friday

Friday, March 7th is the 4th day of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.

AND ALSO UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION announced at 7:30 am CT

Join us in the Chatroom Tomorrow (Thursday) morning at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven .
No password is needed -

Sample Research by Charles Cochran:

Well the market met our expectations for a sideways day as it set up for tomorrow’s Unemployment news. The high/low for the month almost always comes off the release of these numbers as they impact every money manager’s portfolio both domestically and abroad. Not much one can do but await the news and plan on an entry w/the news on the first reaction after the news. If the high/low holds on the retest after the setback, exit this trade. The inflation argument will be reinforced, if NFP come in above 65K and the slowing economy, if the number comes in below zero. The swing from one side of the securities boat to the other at a $1000 a pop in the Bond has become a regular occurrence as the news changes every 2-3 days. Down to tomorrow’s news.

F1 Comments: Market remains in a bracket. IF 115-00 basis June is taken out, the bias will change to a downtrend.

F2 Comments: The ES closed on new intraday lows which should encourage buying in the OVN Bond session. The Bond has been run down into tomorrow’s Unemployment news. The news focus has been switching from recession to inflation. Tomorrow’s news will probably not change these flip flops. The market has taken on a paranoid posture to the news. Every headline is out to break a money manager’s performance and the name of the game has become exit as fast as you can leading to full point reactions to headlines/news. The Unemployment news can cause 3 point days. The market has been run down in expectation of a higher than forecast NFP number. If the market catches negative news doesn’t break, a short covering rally should be expected. Down to the news. NFP is expected at 25-40K. Want to trade the first correction after the news with an exit, if the high/low off the news isn’t taken out.

F4 Comments: Analysis was to be a seller. Multiple sell opportunities all session.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot/Support and Resistance for Fri, 7 Mar:

OPEN HOUSE DAY 3

Thursday, March 6th is the 3rd day of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.

Join us in the Chatroom Tomorrow (Thursday) morning at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven .
No password is needed -

Sample Research by Charles Cochran:

Another day of hard selling in spite of split news. The Factory Order numbers were ignored and ISM Services drove the trading. In some news articles the service/government sectors were cited as up to 90% of the economy. If so, then the soft landing argument was strengthened. And if a soft landing, then inflation will not be wrung out of the world’s economy. 7% growth rates in China and India are still viewed as the two economies that will prevent the world from falling into a recession. The top of the bracket at 119-00 basis June held. And now the bottom of the bracket is within reach. And there is Friday’s news that is influencing the trading. The NFP number is either higher than currently forecast or inflation is trumping a slowing economy.

F1 Comments: Market remains in a bracket and poised to retest support at 115-00, basis June. If 115-00 comes out, will change the call from a bracket to a downtrend.

F2 Comments: The Bond got whacked again and again on news that could have been taken the Bond up. The market’s focus is on inflation after last Friday’s rally when the focus shifted to the economy. Bernanke’s concern over the economy has taken back seat for the last two days. Some new s to influence tomorrow’s trading, but Friday’s news could hold the market in a range too, if the selling doesn’t get started early in tomorrow’s session. Jobless Claims is expected at 360K and Pending Home Sales at -1.0%. If tomorrow’s selling doesn’t get started early and produce follow through selling, I would expect that some shorts will cover. Our first recommended trade tomorrow is a sale. 1st sell zone is 116-19/23 and a back up sell at 116-27/31. If 116-06 or the OVN session low holds, cover. OK to buy too, if the market can’t take out 116-06 or OVN session lows hold. Exit if 116-24/289 is then rejected.

F4 Comments: Analysis was to sell 117-23 OB w/a back up sell at 117-27/31. OVN session high was 117-30.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot/Support and Resistance for Thurs, 6 Mar:

Free Trial Week Day 2

Day 2 of the TradeMaven Inside Edge Trial week is Wednesday.

After the close I will be giving a seminar on Understanding Market Profile.

Here is a sample of the research our participants receive on a daily basis as part of the TradeMaven Inside Edge:

From Charles Cochran - Interesting day. Market tried to trade higher all day until the heavy selling late in the session when the Bond broke hard hitting 117-065 before the selling was over. I couldn’t find any news to tie to the selling. The bracket held 2 days ago and those that saw that hit the bids all the way down after lunch. The close was weak. If the ES doesn’t sell off in the OVN session, want to be a seller for tomorrow’s first trade. Some news to drive the trading—ADP Employment Index and ISM Services should be the market’s focus.

F1 Comments: The top of the bracket basis June at 119-00±. Market’s bias remains a bracket, perhaps a downtrend in a bracket, if the selling continues tomorrow.

F2 Comments: Will tomorrow bring more selling? The question of the moment. Couldn’t find any news to tie to the selling. Someone entered the market in size and it showed. When 118-11 held on the rebound, the selling accelerated and didn’t stop until 117-065 was touched. Short covering closed the market at 117-15. Could see some new buying OVN too, if the equity market news brings in new selling in the ES, the Bond can rally back. Some news tomorrow that could affect prices. ADP’s Private Sector Employment number is expected at 18,000 and ISM Services at 48.5. If the ES is sideways, to higher, want to sell 117-23 OB. Preferred sell zone is 117-27/31. May not get there. If 117-8/12 holds on the retest, OK to get long w/an exit, if 117-24/28 is then rejected.

F3 Comments: Analysis was to buy 118-01/05. Multiple buy opportunities throughout the session.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Wednesday 5 March:

TradeMaven Inside Edge Free Week

Tuesday, March 4th is the start of the TradeMaven Inside Edge OPEN HOUSE.

Join us in the Chatroom Tomorrow (Tuesday) morning at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven .
No password is needed -

TradeMaven Inside Edge is a comprehensive trader’s education forum focused on e-Mini S&Ps and U.S. Treasury Bond Futures.

TradeMaven Inside Edge features the necessary analytics and execution information in one place to speed up your decision process, keep you on the right side of the market, and eliminate so much of the noise that surrounds trading today.

This unique forum is the brainchild of Charles Cochran – a trading pro who has spent the last 15 years fine-tuning a proven methodology that eliminates extraneous information and concentrates on the market activity that matters: the market activity that foretells the market's next move.


For Tuesday:
The eMini S&P may have bottomed out today as after the low the market started to favor higher prices. A stong move above 1335 area will be the sign of a bul move - if so, buy breaks.

From the TradeMaven Software - Volume Weighted Support and Resistance for Tuesday, March 4th: