Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Hot Shot For Tuesday

Good Morning.



New Home sales, Consumer confidence, and the FOMC (Afternoon) reports are due out today. All are bound to have a bearish effect on the ES and boost the Bonds. We had a low volume day yesterday, however and the volume in the ES is favoring the high side of the pivot this morning. If there was an average volume day yesterday I would contiue to be bearish, however since only a fraction of the market participants traded yesterday, I think the sell off is going to bring in buyers who think the market is at a premium. I am cautiously bullish as a result. Follow the volume. If we trade higher than 1270 start buying low volume pull backs - if we trade lower that 1263 sell the low volume rallies -



Support and Resistance Numbers



ES ZB

r4 1287.00 119.22

r3 1280.25 119.15

r2 1275.50 119.04

r1 1270.50 118.29

PP 1267.50 118.25

s1 1263.50 118.15

s2 1257.50 118.07

s3 1250.75 117.28

s4 1244.75 117.15





Best

Josh Kelne

Office: 312-521-7347

800-845-9685

www.trademaven.com

Take the Trade

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This e-mail is confidential and may also be legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, use of the information contained in this e-mail (including disclosure, copying or distribution) is prohibited and may be unlawful. TradeMaven Inside Edge is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.

Hot Shot For Monday

Good Morning.



Existing Home Sales and bill auctions are the only reports out today - Home sales are bound to be a drag on the ES, look for a sharp break at 9:00 am Central on that announcement. I am not at al confident that the ES will hold its gains from Friday - 1279 is going to act like a magnet because it is such a large volume area. If the ES breaks lower to the 1285 area be a seller - I am leaning toward the bear side this morning. Open interest was lower and volume has been building lower since last night's open.




Support and Resistance Numbers



ES ZB

r4 1307.50 118.28

r3 1302.50 118.22

r2 1296.50 118.15

r1 1293.00 118.09

PP 1289.00 118.03

s1 1286.50 117.30

s2 1283.50 117.18

s3 1280.25 117.13

s4 1275.50 117.02





Best

Josh Kelne

Friday, July 25, 2008

Hot Shot for Friday

Good Morning.

Volume is building lower and lower off reports - unemployment was higher than expected, home sales lower than expected. It is going to be a while until the economy finds sure footing. I feel more comfortable selling the low volume rallies today.

Support and Resistance Numbers

ES ZB

r4 1275.50 116.18
r3 1270.50 116.05
r2 1263.50 115.22
r1 1258.75 115.10
PP 1256.50 115.04
s1 1247.50 114.46
s2 1240.70 114.16
s3 1236.00 114.10
s4 1230.50 114.01

Best
Josh Kelne
Office: 312-521-7347
800-845-9685
www.trademaven.com

Take the Trade

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This e-mail is confidential and may also be legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, use of the information contained in this e-mail (including disclosure, copying or distribution) is prohibited and may be unlawful. TradeMaven Inside Edge is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

7/24/08

Good Morning.

Volume is being favored at the pivot - I would lean against 1287 pretty hard -
Support and Resistance Numbers

ES ZB
r4 1305.50 115.08
r3 1295.50 115.03
r2 1291.50 114.26
r1 1287.25 114.16
PP 1280.50 114.06
s1 1275.50 114.02
s2 1270.50 113.24
s3 1268.75 113.19
s4 1263.25 113.09

7/1/08

Good Morning.

The trend continues to move downward and volume continues to build lower (including a rise in open interest of 35,000 contracts) all signaling the trend will continue. Trade with a short bias. Sell rallies against resistance.


ES ZB

r4 1301.75 116.21
r3 1296.00 116.17
r2 1291.75 116.11
r1 1286.50 116.05
PP 1280.25 115.27
s1 1277.75 115.16
s2 1270.75 115.10
s3 1264.25 115.00
s4 1260.75 114.26

today's reports:
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
Tomorrow's Reports:
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Redbook 8:55 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET

6/30/08

Good Morning.



The trend continues to move downward and volume continues to build lower (including a rise in open interest of 35,000 contracts) all signaling the trend will continue. Trade with a short bias. Sell rallies against resistance.





ES ZB

r4 1301.75 116.21

r3 1296.00 116.17

r2 1291.75 116.11

r1 1286.50 116.05

PP 1280.25 115.27

s1 1277.75 115.16

s2 1270.75 115.10

s3 1264.25 115.00

s4 1260.75 114.26



today's reports:

NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET



Tomorrow's Reports:

ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET

Redbook 8:55 ET

Construction Spending 10:00 ET

ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

For Wednesday

Still no change in the bond numbers, but the ES is drifting higher despite my warnings of a sell off.

We are most likely range bound before the Unemployment Number tomorrow - the number is bound to reflect higher unemployment numbers than expected which should have a bearish effect. But follow the volume - if there are no more buyers at resistance sell it and collect back at the pivot.

ES ZB

r4 1307.50 116.21

r3 1301.50 116.17

r2 1295.50 116.11

r1 1291.50 116.05

PP 1284.50 115.27

s1 1275.50 115.16

s2 1270.50 115.10

s3 1263.75 115.00

s4 1256.25 114.26



today's reports:
MBA Apps 7:00 ET
Factory Orders 8:15 ET

Tomorrow's Reports:
Unemployment Situation 8:30ET
ISM non-mfg survey 10:00 ET

Best

Josh Kelne
800-845-9685

Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This e-mail is confidential and may also be legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, use of the information contained in this e-mail (including disclosure, copying or distribution) is prohibited and may be unlawful. TradeMaven Inside Edge is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

For Tuesday

Good Morning.



Very little change in the numbers - an early morning break in the eMini S&P has created a gap at 1274 area so we are bound to fill in that gap. I am sticking with a short bias. Sell rallies against resistance.





ES ZB

r4 1283.50 116.21

r3 1278.25 116.17

r2 1275.50 116.11

r1 1270.50 116.05

PP 1267.00 115.27

s1 1264.25 115.16

s2 1260.74 115.10

s3 1256.50 115.00

s4 1253.00 114.26



today's reports:


ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET

Redbook 8:55 ET

Construction Spending 10:00 ET

ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET



Tomorrow's Reports:

MBA Apps 7:00 ET

Factory Orders 8:15 ET




Thursday

Unemployment Situation 8:30ET

ISM non-mfg survey 10:00 ET



Best

Josh Kelne

800-845-9685

Josh@trademaven.com


Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This e-mail is confidential and may also be legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, use of the information contained in this e-mail (including disclosure, copying or distribution) is prohibited and may be unlawful. TradeMaven Inside Edge is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.

For Monday

Good Morning.



The trend continues to move downward and volume continues to build lower (including a rise in open interest of 35,000 contracts) all signaling the trend will continue. Trade with a short bias. Sell rallies against resistance.





ES ZB

r4 1301.75 116.21

r3 1296.00 116.17

r2 1291.75 116.11

r1 1286.50 116.05

PP 1280.25 115.27

s1 1277.75 115.16

s2 1270.75 115.10

s3 1264.25 115.00

s4 1260.75 114.26



today's reports:

NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET



Tomorrow's Reports:

ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET

Redbook 8:55 ET

Construction Spending 10:00 ET

ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET



Best

Josh Kelne

800-845-9685



Disclaimer: There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This e-mail is confidential and may also be legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, use of the information contained in this e-mail (including disclosure, copying or distribution) is prohibited and may be unlawful. TradeMaven Inside Edge is offered for educational purposes only. Neither TradeMaven Group nor any of its affiliates recommend or endorse specific trades. Trading based on TradeMaven Inside Edge is conducted at the discretion and risk of the individual trader.

For Friday

The eMini S&P had 86K contracts open to the short side in Thursday’s session – Traders who hold their positions for an extended period of time are speculating the market to continue its downward trend. Consumer Sentiment and higher fuel prices will exacerbate the situation. Sell the rallies against resistance.


Support and Resistance:

ES ZB
R4 1301.75 116.17
R3 1294.50 116.05
R2 1286.75 115.19
R1 1282.00 115.15
PP 1279.25 115.08
S1 1277.75 115.02
S2 1270.75 114.28
S3 1264.25 114.21
S4 1260.75 114.12


Today’s Reports:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00ET

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Hot Shot for Thursday

Today’s news slants toward the bearish side – The sharp overnight downturn is a reflection of market sentiment – I still have a short side bias.

Support and Resistance:

ES ZB
R4 1324.50 115.11
R3 1320.75 114.30
R2 1317.50 114.22
R1 1312.25 114.12
PP 1309.75 114.02
S1 1306.00 113.28
S2 1301.50 113.19
S3 1294.50 113.12
S4 1291.50 113.03


Today’s Reports:
GDP 8:30ET
Jobless Claims 8:30ET
Existing Home Sales 10:00ET


Tomorrow’s Reports
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00ET

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Webinar Tuesday Afternoon

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for 10 Jun:

Friday, June 6, 2008

Unemployment Friday

Volume is building to the upside in the S&P with higher open interest. Unles unemployment is bullish, which it very well maybe, I would expect that upward trend to continue. It may mitigate a negative number as well.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
6 Jun:



TradeMaven’s Inside Edge (TIE) 3-2-1 methodology uses 3 rules, 2 patterns, and 1 indicator. Rule #3: Don’t Fade Moves-Out-of-the-Middle (MoM’s.) MoM’s are “go with” trades that put money in your pocket. Any significant market move will start from the middle of a prior distribution. Fading (going against) this type of move is a recipe for disaster. Knowing a MoM is in progress helps you set expectations and market direction for the coming day. Understanding the correct market direction will keep you out of low probability trades and reduce your chances of getting chopped up.



The proprietary TIE Market Profile provides us with an excellent example in the eMini S&P. The short term trend moving higher has run out of gas. The MoM comes out of the distribution, accelerating to the downside. We call this “the end is the beginning.”



To learn more about MoM’s and the 3-2-1 Methodology, Join us, Tuesday June 10th at 3:30pm central time, for a Free Webinar on the TradeMaven Inside Edge.



Charles Cochran, a securities and futures industry veteran of 30 years, will explain trading like a professional utilizing TradeMaven’s 3-2-1 methodology.



To register, follow this link www.iiedge.com, and fill out the registration short-form. We will contact you with username, password and login instructions.



A Free 10-day trial is also available to TradeMaven’s Inside Edge trading room, where you can experience Charles’ market commentary beginning at 7:00am central time, just prior to the Bond opening.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

For Thursday

Still wary of the breaks based on bad news - volume is developing at higher prices, but the short side is still the bias.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
5 Jun:

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Still watching the sellers

Volume was certainly developing lower. Afternoon trading on Tuesday showed support at the 1372 level; I'll look to see if open interest rose tomorrow morning. If so, the selling will continue.

ISM non-manufacturing and Productivity reports are due out Wednesday afternoon, Unemployment Situation is Friday

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
4 Jun:

Monday, June 2, 2008

Back From Finals And Vacation

Back from my break -

Though the S&P sold off - it came right back to the pivot - I'm not convinced the market will continue to go lower, But I can't exactly be bullish with some of the reports due out this week.

I would trade with a selling bias, but take profits once the sellers start backing off.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
3 Jun:

Monday, May 12, 2008

For Tuesday

Emini S&P
The 1382 Support area held as we rallied on higher volume today. Now upward momentum must break the low volume area of 1404. Volume was developing higher throughout the day. If the IB period shows signs of weakness (Low Volume) as the market goes lower, buyers will come in and take the market higher. If volume gets weak at 1404 were not going to push higher. Unless good fundamental news comes we'll head down to 1395 area.

Bonds
Volume was developing higher on the day breaking in the afternoon, we are siting at a significant support area and we'll need to see selling or the bonds will return to the mid 117's

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
13 May:



Upcoming Reports
Tuesday
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45ET
Import and Export Prices 8:30ET
Retail Sales 8:30ET
Redbook 8:55ET
Business Inventories 10:00ET
4-Week Bill Auction 1:00ET

Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00ET
Consumer Price Index 8:30ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30ET
Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30ET
Treasury International Capital 9:00ET
Industrial Production 9:15ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30ET
Housing Market Index 1:00ET
Money Supply 4:30ET

Friday
Housing Starts 8:30ET
Consumer Sentiment (p) 10:00ET

Sunday, May 11, 2008

For Monday

We continue to see trading value lower prices in recent activity - Bias is on the short side.
Sell the rallies at resistance -

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
12 May:


Upcoming Reports
Monday
Treasury Budget 2:00ET

Tuesday
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45ET
Import and Export Prices 8:30ET
Retail Sales 8:30ET
Redbook 8:55ET
Business Inventories 10:00ET
4-Week Bill Auction 1:00ET

Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00ET
Consumer Price Index 8:30ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30ET
Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30ET
Treasury International Capital 9:00ET
Industrial Production 9:15ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30ET
Housing Market Index 1:00ET
Money Supply 4:30ET

Friday
Housing Starts 8:30ET
Consumer Sentiment (p) 10:00ET

Thursday, May 8, 2008

For Friday

Prices are in an even distribution around the 1396 area. Bias to the short side. The big indication will be where volume collects before the opening and then the Initial balance.

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for
9 May:



Upcoming Reports
Friday
International Trade 8:30 ET
RBC CASH Index 9:00 ET

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Final Exams Tonight

Forgive me - a bit busy- numbers will be back for Friday