Headwinds

For Friday,

As our Federal Reserve Chairman indicated, the Fed will be "flexible" considering the country's credit issues and rising oil prices. A rate cut of at least 25 basis points is expected vice early rumors of 50bp. Eminis should push a bit higher Friday heading into the end of the month and the weekend.

Reports On Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30ET
NAPM-Chicago 9:45ET
Construction Spending 10:00ET
Farm Prices 3:00ET

Like the Fed, be flexible - buy the breaks at support and sell rallies at resistance - tight stops if you are still not using Market Profile.

On that note - Wednesday, Dec 5th we are going to have a training seminar on the CBOT's Market Profile - details to follow - but mark you calendar.

Pivot Support and Resistance Numbers for Friday, Nov. 30th:

Rolaids, Anyone?

For Thursday:
"Yet, the hope that the Federal Reserve will cut a key interest rate for a third time this year to energize the economy sent stocks soaring on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrials jumped for the second day in a row, gaining 331.01 points to close at 13,289.45. It marked the index's biggest two-day point gain in five years." writes Jeannine Aversa of the Associated Press.

Hopes and fears is what is driving the markets lately. We reported to you on Monday that the Fed is going to cut rates again - but this is a quick fix for a LARGE problem. The key will be to look at Open Interest in the morning - a negative number indicates the bear trend will continue - large positive number indicates a true trend change -
I am still thinking this was a relief rally - still biased towards the downside.

Tomorrow is the last day the December contract will be the lead month for the T-Bonds; Friday morning we'll start trading the March '08 contract. E-mini S&P's and Russell will rollover on the 13th.

Upcoming Reports:
GDP (preliminary) 8:30ET
Jobless Claims 8:30ET
Help Wanted Index 10:00ET
New Home Sales 10:00ET

Huge Volatility Ahead - a great chance to make some money.

Support and Resistance Numbers for Thursday, Nov 29th:

For Wednesday

Rallies today off of Citi Bank's news was not what I would consider very strong.

Durable Goods and Existing Home sales reports will remind us Wednesday morning of the current state of the economy. I am still bearish looking to sell the rallies.

Pivot Support and resistance levels for Wednesday, Nov 28th:

Comments From Charles

For Tuesday:


The bear trend will continue. Below is a sample of the daily research available as a member of the TradeMaven Inside Edge User Group with Pivots Below:



Charles Cochran posted: What a day! The sentiment changed today in the Bond markets w/the Bond trading up to 119-12 before its close at 118-24. This is signaling a cut in the Fed Funds of at least 50 bp or that the US is headed for a recession, not a soft landing. The next FOMC meeting is 12-11-07. 50 bp is expected. To buoy the market it will take more than a 50 bp cut. The structure and prices support higher prices. Buying into weakness remains the best play (For the T-Bond, sell the rallies in the ES or ER2 - JK).

Little news tomorrow. Consumer Confidence is expected at 91.5. Would guess this number will be less than forecast. The pressure to act is increasing on everyone.


F1 Comments: Both prices and volume moved higher today and with momentum. The structure and bias supports higher prices. If today’s move was it, then tomorrow should be a day where the market finds a level to trade around. Could be 118-24/28.

F2 Comments: Strong buying that entered the market in waves after 117-16 fell. The shorts had to pay up to cover their positions. If the buying exhausted itself this afternoon, I think the market will seek a level to trade/distribute around. I see 118-24± as a possible number for the market to begin to trade around. Little in the way of news this morning. Focus should be the ES’s direction. The ES is poised to take out 1400 tomorrow. If so, the Bond should see some new buying. If the buying doesn’t get started early tomorrow morning, I expect a pause day w/sellers above 119-04 and buyers against 118-10. Want to buy into early weakness at 118-13/17 and see if 119-00/04 can be taken out. If resistance holds, can trade from the short side too.





F4 Comments: The analysis was to be a buyer. Multiple opportunities to buy advantageously throughout the session off the software’s signals.









Pivot, Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Nov 27:

Door Busters

For Monday:

The last two days of the TradeMaven Inside Edge Open House are Monday Nov 26th and Tuesday Nov 27th. TradeMaven Inside Edge is a comprehensive trader’s education forum focused on e-Mini S&Ps and U.S. Treasury Bond Futures. This unique forum is the brainchild of Charles Cochran – a trading pro who has spent the last 15 years fine-tuning a proven methodology that eliminates extraneous information and concentrates on the market activity that foretells the market's next move.

TradeMaven Inside Edge features the necessary analytics and execution information in one place to speed up your decision process, keep you on the right side of the market, and eliminate so much of the noise that surrounds trading today.

Join us Monday Morning at 7am Central in our Chat Room; the trial is FREE.

Click on this link: www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven to enter the chat room. The Password is "education".

Monday's Outlook
The rally on Friday was done on low volume. It appears that everyone was up early to go shopping for "door busters" rather than trading. Retail stores were reporting large crowds (and my wife was out there at 4am...crazy) but the day after Thanksgiving is the pivotal day for retail sales. I am expecting lower overall sales this holiday season. Add this to the current economic climate and this bear trend will continue until the next Fed interest rate cut (at least).

So don't be fooled by low volume rallies and door busters; trade the short side until the market shifts -

Upcoming Reports: Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Nov 27th @9am Central.

Pivot Support and Resistance levels for Monday, November 26th:

Wednesday Before Thanksgiving

Wednesday morning we will continue the OPEN HOUSE for the TradeMaven Inside Edge Online Chat room.

Please join us all this week for live commentary over the eMini S&P and T-Bond futures.
We will also have a complete overview of the program after the close Wednesday, for those who cannot join us during the trading day.

Login at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven

the password is "education"

TradeMaven Inside Edge is a comprehensive trader’s education forum focused on e-Mini S&Ps and U.S. Treasury Bond Futures.

TradeMaven Inside Edge features the necessary analytics and execution information in one place to speed up your decision process, keep you on the right side of the market.

Upcoming Reports:
Jobless Claims @ 7:30, Consumer Sentiment and Leading Indicators @ 9:00 am Central.

I expect the market to make lows off the news and then make a slow rally back going into the Holiday.

Pivot, Support and Resistance For Wednesday, Nov 21st:

Comments by Charles

For Tuesday: My outlook on the market hasn't changed, so I have posted Charlie's Comments from the TradeMaven Inside Edge (TIE) user group site.

The second day of the OPEN HOUSE of the TIE Chatroom begins Tuesday Morning at 7am central.

Here is the link: www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven - the password is "education".

Charlie's Comments:

ES was pressured today and this took the Bond higher. Another new high for the Bond and the ES is close to taking out support at 1433/35. Its not the ES that is taking the Bond lower. It is the weakening economy that is taking the ES lower and supporting the Bond. The bond market remains in an uptrend. Tomorrow’s news is housing based and could easily come in lower than forecast, which would be supportive for the Bonds. With some help from the news the Bond is poised to trade higher tomorrow morning.

F1 Comments: Both price and volume moved higher and extended their ranges. They held these gains into the close. The market is pointed higher. Longer term we are buyers of weakness.



















F2 Comments: Market traded to new highs on this move. 116-00 fell and the buyers held their positions into the close. The economic news OVN was conducive for the Bonds and not so for the ES. The economic news continues to pressure the ES and it will take a big piece of news to change this. Some news tomorrow---Housing Starts is expected at 1.175M and Permits at 1.200M. We want to buy early weakness and see if 116-17/20 can be taken out. If 116-17/20 is rejected and the ES is showing some strength, could take a quick short and see if the market can get through support at 116-00/04. Buy 116-01/05. Exit, if 116-17/20 holds.







F4 Comments: Analysis was to buy the Bond. Multiple trades from the long side of the market throughout the session.












Pivot, Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Nov 20:

Closing the Vegas TradersExpo

For Monday:

This week is the OPEN HOUSE for the TradeMaven Inside Edge Online Chat room.

TradeMaven Inside Edge is a comprehensive trader’s education forum focused on e-Mini S&Ps and U.S. Treasury Bond Futures.

TradeMaven Inside Edge features the necessary analytics and execution information in one place to speed up your decision process, keep you on the right side of the market.

Please join us all this week for live commentary over the eMini S&P and T-Bond futures. The Methodology works folks - come take a look.

Login at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven

the password is "education"

Upcoming Reports:
Housing Starts and FOMC Minutes will both be released on Tuesday.
Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment and Leading Indicators will be released Wednesday - nothing on Thanksgiving, of course.

The afternoon rally Friday was expected to close out the weekend - meaning the down trend should continue. Sell the rallies against the resistance points.

Pivot, Support and Resistance For Monday, Nov 19th

For Friday, TradersExpo Day 2

Well, we definitely got the break I was looking for yesterday. Open Interest is always the key to figuring the trends next move. I will spend more time on open interest in the training seminars coming up.

I expect this downward trend to continue in the morning followed by short covering rally in the afternoon heading into the weekend. Sell the rallies in the morning - buy the breaks once the rally starts.

Reports for today: Industrial Production released at 8:15 am Central

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Nov 16th:

Thursday - TradersExpo Day 1

I will be traveling tomorrow morning and will be at the TradeMaven Booth in the Afternoon.

Reports out tomorrow: CPI and Jobless Claims will be released at 7:30am Central.

Rallies in the emini S&P futures were done on falling open interest which suggests that these are short covering of longer term traders - I'm still Bearish.

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Thursday, Nov 15th:

Wednesday Before The Show

I was eating red grapes yesterday with my 3-year-old, Kiki. "Where do grapes come from?" I asked her - "Wal-Mart" she replied.

The Great WAL-MART! We're all suckers for cheap stuff (insert alternate word here). WAL-Mart's earnings jump-started WAL-Street today. This is the reported root cause for the rally in the eMini S&P's and related markets today.

Well, "a cheap price is a cheap thrill" - so I'm not BUY-ing (get it?), yet. Strong volume came with this rally today, but I'm thinking we have not seen the end of the Bearish Fall we're having. Read the comments from yesterday again - good stuff (and like WAL-Mart, cheap.)

Reports Tomorrow - PPI and Retail Sales are released Wednesday - these will be the numbers to watch.


Pivot, Support and Resistance for Wednesday, Nov 14th:

For Tuesday, Nov 13th

We will be giving an encore presentation of the TradeMaven Inside Edge Methodology!
Join us TUESDAY after the close in the Inside Edge Chat Room: http://trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
The password is “trademaven”. We’ll start at 3:30pm Central / 4:30 Eastern.

Pending Home Sales index will be published at 9am Central followed by the Treasury Budget at 2pm; I cannot believe either of these reports will bring bullish news. PPI, producer price index, will come out Wednesday Morning.

Sell resistance and as the price trends through support levels, sell when the market rallies back to those levels. Markets are cyclical; in a downward trend the market will hit a new low and then rotate toward a lower high, this is the area to sell. (downward trend = lower lows and lower highs) Setting a 2 point stop is inadequate protection. If the market goes against you on little volume traded, stick with the position. If your position turns against you on HIGH volume – dump it immediately!

We’ll be at the Las Vegas Traders Expo later in the week; details are posted on the homepage: www.trademaven.com. So if you are looking to punch me out for my market analysis, I’ll be there.

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Nov 13th:

Veteran's Day

Bonds are closed, but the Emini Equity Index Futures will continue trading Monday morning.

The holiday may make for some small rallies as there is little news on Monday. The bear trend will continue for the time being will rallies this week generated by 3rd quarter earnings from key companies. Look to sell the rallies -

PPI, Retail Sales, CPI and other reports are due out later in the week -

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Monday, Nov 12th:

Comments by Charles

Another stock market sell-off and the Bond was higher. The flight to quality play is intact. The Bond stalled at 114-15/16 until the selling in the ES picked up again. The Bond rallied to retest its recent high at 114-25. One quick sell off as day traders liquidated their positions. The close was strong. The Bond market is set to take out 115-00 w/a little help from the ES. Tuesday’s market could take the Bond through 115-00. Will update the Bond after Monday’s holiday.

F1 Comments: Once again volume and price moved higher. As long as the Bond continues to build volume above 113-04/08 the Bond is pointed higher. The bias remains for higher prices.

F2 Comments: Not a difficult day to foretell and call. The ES was lower. The news was supportive. And the Bond traded higher. It was a double distribution day w/114-25, a recent chart retested and it held. The close was strong. The analysis favors higher prices w/out news and a recovering ES. The focus remains the stock market, a softening economy and inflation down the road. Light news w/Pending Home Sales expected at ??? . Last month’s number was-2.0%. If the ES is sideways to lower, we want to buy early weakness and see if 115-00 can be taken out. Resistance is at 114-29/30, 115-13 and 115-20/24. Buy zone is 114-13/17. Exit, if 114-29/30 holds. OK to get short, if the ES is in a strong rally or if 114-29/115-00 holds. Market then has to take out 114-15 to stay short.

F4 Comments: Analysis favored the buy side. But could take a short, if the ES rallied. F4 screen generated multiple trades from either side of the market.

For Friday, Nov 9th

The TradeMaven Inside Edge daily chatroom will be open to visitors tomorrow (Friday) morning and throughout the day. Come see our Software and Methodology in live action!

Sign in at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
the password will be "Apollo11"

Trading Volume is still rather heavy with Open Interest rising (up 30,000 contracts according to Wednesday's figure), so this bear market will continue - follow the trend.

Reports Due out on Friday: Import and Export Prices 7:30am Central; Consumer Sentiment 9:00 Central.

VETERANS DAY TRADING HOURS: eMini S&P and Russell 2000 trading hours will not change, but the Bonds Fuures and related contracts will close at 12:00 (noon Central) and remain closed for Monday. If you have any question on a particular market - let me know.

Next week I'll be taking my show on the road. If you are planning to be at the Las Vegas Traders Expo - drop by and see me at the TradeMaven booth. TradeMaven users will get a special gift for stopping by.

Pivot Levels and Support and Resistance for Friday, Nov 9th:

The Healthy Bear Market

"The market has a memory like your spouse," I said in my webinar today. "It remembers the crappy decisions that you made and It can cost you lots of Money." (I like my own jokes)

This is just the beginning folks, Jobless Claims at 7:30am Central followed by Nat Gas report will continue this bear move. Volume is up - Open Interest (I suspect) is rising on lower (and lower) prices, all signs of a healthy bear market - continue to sell rallies in the emini S&P's and Russell. Look at buying breaks in the Bond Futures and Euro FX Futures.

Join me in the TradeMaven’s Inside Edge Room Thursday at 4:30 ET (3:30 Central) for TradeMaven Inside Edge Intro Seminar.

www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven, the password is “trademaven”

Pivot, Support and Resistance Levels for Thursday Nov 8th:

Wednesday Late Morning

Pivot Levels revised for the morning break in the emini S&P and emini Russell:

Hump Day - Nov 7th

Wednesday Things to DO:

1. Upgrade to TradeMaven 4.1.7 - GET it HERE - www.tmdownloads.com
TradeMaven's latest version is now released, link above, if you have questions about upgrading give us a call.

2. Reports to Keep My eye on - MBA Purchase Applications 6am Central, Productivity and Costs at 7:30am, and Consumer Credit at 2pm.

3. Write Down the Pivot Levels on Josh's Blog - http://takethetrade.blogspot.com

4. Take The Trade!

AND DON'T FORGET: Market Profile Training! - join me in the online training room at 3:30pm Central at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven - password is TradeMaven. We are going to continue our training from last week covering value in the markets and how to use the pivot levels.

"Relief Rally" was a new term I learned today - it means this is a short upturn in a downward trend. - With little news to suggest a reversal, and little long term technical info - I think the trend will continue DOWN - I may be wrong, but I think Consumer Credit will be the fundamental news to watch - Daily Open Interest will be what I'll check in the a.m. Use the numbers!


Pivot, Support and Resistance for Nov 7th:

For Tuesday, Nov 6th

Should be a slow news day tomorrow; some reports due out Wednesday are MBA Purchase Applications (which should further confirm current housing slump)at 6am Central, Productivity and Costs at 7:30am, and Consumer Credit at 2pm.

Long story short - I had to pull 180 days of data to look at volume stats to do the numbers tonight, which means to me that the trend will continue to carry the market lower - sell rallies in the eMini S&P and Russell - buy breaks in the Bonds.

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Nov 6th:



Charlie's Post Market Comments: (Geared toward the Bonds)

A quiet pause day w/little in the way to drive prices. ES was sold and Bond bought off the ISM Services news, which was just the opposite of what was expected. Financial woes trumped supportive economic news until the Bond’s close. The biggest dynamic in the Bond market this week is the 10 and 30Y bond auctions. Couple these auctions with whether the ES sells or not and you have defined this week’s directional puzzle. I think the market will trade a range until the ES sorts itself out. If lower, the Bond should take out 115-00. IF higher, the Bond has just retested the highs of a three year trading range, which held.

F1 Comments: While the market didn’t build volume above Friday’s volume, it did hold Friday’s gains for the most part. As long as the market holds above the 113-22/27 level, the market can trade higher. The market’s bias remains higher.



F2 Comments: Monday’s market was a sideways to lower market w/the highs set in the OVN session after the CitiCorp write down news hit the tape. A recovery of the ES after this news brought light selling to the Bond w/113-27 tested before a close at 114-01. As long as 113-22/26 holds, the market can trade higher. No news on tap this morning. The Bond should take its clues from the ES. If the ES is lower, we want to buy early weakness and see if 114-08/10 can be taken out. If it holds, we will look to the short side of the market. Buy 113-29/114-01. Exit, if 114-08/10 holds. If 114-08/10 holds, OK to get short. Cover, if 113-27/114-00 proves to be support.


Analysis was to buy 113-29/114-01 w/an exit if 114-16/21 is rejected. Multiple trades from either side of the market.

For Monday, Nov 5th

The Unemployment Situation report released on Friday should have had a more bullish impact on the eMini S&P. S&P's rallied on the news - but before the regular trading hours opened; after that they fell out of bed.

Fridays late afternoon rallies was due to Short position covering and speculative scalping - So I am expecting Monday morning to continue its move down.

Sell rallies - hard stops not working for you? ask me about flexible stops using the market profile. We will do more training on the profile on Wednesday.

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Monday, Nov 5th:

For Friday, Oct 2nd

Unemployment Situation will be released at 7:30 am Central.

This Big news in the morning will round out a volatile week in the eMini S&P and similar markets.

We got the drop today I was expecting, so I will be looking at shorting rallies against the
Resistance Numbers (or previous Support.)

The Fed's reminder of inflation was reported as the cause for Wall Street fears as equities fell and I also read Ford and Chrysler are cutting jobs - not great for the economy - Sell it folks

Sell those rallies as the maret trends down – the trend is you friend.

Support and Resistance Numbers for Friday, Nov 2nd, 2007:

From Charlie, re: Bonds

Stock market articles – earnings and credit woes were the feature and the ES responded and crashed.

The bond rallied back to where it was before the FOMC announcement. The Bond is positioned to trade higher and at the top end of its range awaiting tomorrow’s news. If the NFP doesn’t come in lower than forecast, the is plenty of room for disappointment. NFP is expected at 83K and he market’s focus.

Know the news and you have the trade.