Long story short - I had to pull 180 days of data to look at volume stats to do the numbers tonight, which means to me that the trend will continue to carry the market lower - sell rallies in the eMini S&P and Russell - buy breaks in the Bonds.
Pivot, Support and Resistance for Nov 6th:
Charlie's Post Market Comments: (Geared toward the Bonds)
A quiet pause day w/little in the way to drive prices. ES was sold and Bond bought off the ISM Services news, which was just the opposite of what was expected. Financial woes trumped supportive economic news until the Bond’s close. The biggest dynamic in the Bond market this week is the 10 and 30Y bond auctions. Couple these auctions with whether the ES sells or not and you have defined this week’s directional puzzle. I think the market will trade a range until the ES sorts itself out. If lower, the Bond should take out 115-00. IF higher, the Bond has just retested the highs of a three year trading range, which held.
F1 Comments: While the market didn’t build volume above Friday’s volume, it did hold Friday’s gains for the most part. As long as the market holds above the 113-22/27 level, the market can trade higher. The market’s bias remains higher.
F2 Comments: Monday’s market was a sideways to lower market w/the highs set in the OVN session after the CitiCorp write down news hit the tape. A recovery of the ES after this news brought light selling to the Bond w/113-27 tested before a close at 114-01. As long as 113-22/26 holds, the market can trade higher. No news on tap this morning. The Bond should take its clues from the ES. If the ES is lower, we want to buy early weakness and see if 114-08/10 can be taken out. If it holds, we will look to the short side of the market. Buy 113-29/114-01. Exit, if 114-08/10 holds. If 114-08/10 holds, OK to get short. Cover, if 113-27/114-00 proves to be support.
Analysis was to buy 113-29/114-01 w/an exit if 114-16/21 is rejected. Multiple trades from either side of the market.
