Monday, December 31, 2007

New Year's Eve

For Monday,

The last day of the year - Today, I would expect moderate volume today to the upside. Buy the eMini S&P's at the support points. When the markets re-open on Wednesday the market will continue the intermediate bear trend. 

Upcoming Reports:
Monday -
Existing Home Sales - 10:00am ET

Wednesday
FOMC Minutes - 2:00pm ET (a BIG one) 

Thursday
Jobless Claims - 8:30am ET

Friday
Employment Situation - 8:30am ET (a BIG one)


Holiday Trading Hours:
CME Equity Index (eMini S&P, Russell) - The CME Globex will close for the New Year's Holiday at 3:15pm Central on Monday, December 31 and will not open until 5am on Wednesday, January 2nd. - If you have questions about a specific market - let me know - josh@trademaven.com


Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for Monday, Dec 31st
:

Thursday, December 27, 2007

The News

For Friday,

Markets fell sharply on fundamental news this morning - notice more volume traded today than Wednesday - When this happens you need to be flexible;

doubling down or "dollar-cost averaging" into a trade is a losing proposition - I've seen it a thousand times.

When you are wrong (and you know when you are) - cover the trade.

Friday Reports:
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
Help Wanted Index 10:00 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET
Farm Prices 3:00 ET

Holiday Trading Hours:
CME Equity Index (eMini S&P, Russell) - The CME Globex will close for the New Year's Holiday at 3:15pm Central on Monday, December 31 and will not open until 5am on Wednesday, January 2nd. - If you have questions about a specific market - let me know - josh@trademaven.com


Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for Friday, Dec 28th:

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

The Lone Bull

For Thursday,

We're still moving a bit higher for the time being - great for the pivot level traders - Thee is not a lot of volume out there - look for the bears to return after the new year begins.

I am going to hold a introduction to TradeMaven class next week on Thursday, Jan 3rd.
If you are interested in attending please let me know.


Upcoming Reports -
Thursday:
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Friday:
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Volume Weighted Support and Resistance for Thursday Dec 27th:

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

The Legend

For Wednesday (the Day after Christmas):

The light volume of the holidays will cause this little uptrend to continue into the new year - but when the heavier volume comes back, down we'll go.

Why the "legend" title ? - because I saw I Am Legend this weekend and it freaked me out. Set - I give it 4 out of 5 stars.


Upcoming Reports -
Wednesday:
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET

Thursday:
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Friday:
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Volume Weighted Support and Resistance for Wednesday Dec 26th:

Thursday, December 20, 2007

The Return

For Friday:

I'm back on the stick - S&P rallied in the afternoon on fundamentals but I doubt this will continue tomorrow - I expect to be range bound with an eye towards moving lower.

Friday Reports:
Personal Income and Outlays - 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment - 10:00 ET

Volume weighted pivot, support and resistance for Friday, Dec 20th:

Finals -

The numbers will return tonight - I have been finishing up with final exams this week.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Comments by Charles

Comments by guest commentator Charles Cochran:


The market traded higher post market on the 17th. Gave it up when the ES rallied OVN off the ECB injection of 500 Byn of cash into the European markets. And when the ES couldn’t hold its OVN gains rallied form 114-14 to hit 115-20 before the buying was spent. The close was strong. The market activity analysis favors higher prices w/out news. Tomorrow’s news is limited to the API’s/crude inventories. So I would imagine the focus will again be the ES’s direction. Housing Start/Permit news was supportive for Bonds and not for ES. So news environment the same. Dealers may have worked off some of their 10Y Note inventories today too. Want to buy early weakness and see if 115-22 can be taken out, if ES is sideways to lower.

F1 Comments: Market once again traded higher w/both volume and prices higher on the close. Market’s bias remains a trading range w/out obvious news.

F2 Comments: The Bond rallied after the ES gave up its OVN gains. The inverse relationship continues. The exaggerated reactions to news and range extensions will continue until the full market returns after the first of the year. The early news was supportive. The ES sold. And the Bond rallied. 1,2,3! The close was strong. The market activity analysis favors higher prices w/out news. Only news tomorrow is the API’s and that shouldn’t be much of a factor. If the ES is sideways to lower, we will stick w/our post market comments buy recommendation at 115-01/05. If 115-16/20 holds, will exit the trade.

F 4 Comments: Analysis was to buy weakness, 114-16/20. The low was 114-14. Multiple opportunities from the buy side into lunch

Monday, December 17, 2007

Comments From Charles




For Tuesday:

Guest Commentator Charles Cochran:

A very quiet day until the day session closed and shorts covered and new buying took the market to 115-00 and a day session close at 114-11. Weakness in the ES, recession stories in the press, a long term sentiment that the Fed will steadily be cutting interest rates and the Dealers holding last week’s 10Y Notes all could have combined to rally the Bond. The lack of size offers was probably the biggest factor in the post day session surge to 115-00. If the ES doesn’t plummet in the OVN market, I would expect a pull back to the 114-16/20 area. If 114-16/20 holds as support, the Bond can trade higher tomorrow. Some housing sector news to contend with that could be better than forecast too. Looking to buy weakness in the OVN and AM markets.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



F 1 Comments: Support held at the edge of the bracket. Both volume and prices were higher. Market’s bias remains a bracket.



F2 Comments: The OVN session retested support and it held. The rest of the day session was a slow grind higher until the day session closed and the buying accelerated. Illiquidity forced the shorts to pay up and they did w/115-00 touched on the close. If 114-16/20 holds as support, we will assume some new buying too. The analysis favors higher tomorrow. We want to buy early weakness and see if 115-00 can be taken out. Tomorrow’s news is housing related. If the #’s are lower than forecast, the market should attempt to trade higher. Buy zone has moved up to 114-17/21. Back up buy is 114-13 OB. If ES recovers OVN, should be able to buy a little better. If lower, probably will have to pay up.



F 4 Comments: Analysis was to sell 114-07/11 and buy, if 113-28/114-00 holds. Multiple opportunities to trade from either side.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

The Holiday Blues

For Monday

Still trading the short side of the market - sell the rallies against resistance -


Upcoming Reports:
Monday
Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 ET
Tuesday
Housing Starts 8:30 ET

Volume Weighted Support and Resistance for Monday, December 17th, 2007

Thursday, December 13, 2007

The Vulnerablility

For Friday,

The fromer Fed Chairman and author Alan Greenspan when asked by NPR if the country was heading into a recession stated, "We are far more vulnerable at levels where growth is so slow than we would be otherwise."

You can't get clearer than that folks - pure genius

Friday Reports:
Consumer Price Index - 8:30 ET
Industrial Production - 9:15 ET

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

The Rollover

For Thursday,

You should be trading the March contracts in the emini S&P and other equity index futures -
On your TradeMaven -
1. select "Trading"
2. Select "Profiles" - This will pull up the profile logon mini-screen.
3. The bottome drop-down selector is "Contract Expiration"
on PATS - Change this to MAR 08; on TradeMaven Sim- Change to H8.

Open Interest -
Here is where I get the OI figures - http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/hist/dbindex.html

Rollover doesn't matt - you are looking at TOTAL OPEN INTEREST - Higher OI on falling market indicated the trend will continue lower.

Open interest rose on the Fed Announcement on falling prices - trend is going lower - higher OI off todays move will be a huge confimation - that will hit the site early tomorrow - Continue to sell

Volume Driven Support and resistance for Thursday Dec 13th:

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Aftermath

Well i was half right...

Market did break on the news, but like the Energizer Bunny it kept going, and going...

Long term I have been bearish and depending what Open Interest shows (and I betcha it's up) it look like a bearich holiday season.

So trade from the short side -


Wednesday Reports:
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
Import and Export Prices 8:30 ET

Volume Driven Support and Resistance for Wednesday Dec 12th

Monday, December 10, 2007

The Big Day

For Tuesday:

It should be a slow day before the Fed announcement at 2:15pm ET. I expect the eMini S&Ps to rally a bit more before the market opens for regular trading hours and find a channel to trade before the announcement.

The Fed is expected to announce a 25 bp cut; the market has been buying off this news for the last two weeks. I would expect a break (down move) initially off the news, followed by making new highs shortly thereafter.

BE CAREFUL TRADING THE ANNOUNCEMENT - take profits quickly.

Call me with any questions - 800-845-9685

BTW - eMini's will Rollover to the March contract Thursday Morning -

Volume Driven Support and Resistance for Tuesday Dec 11th 2007:

Sunday, December 9, 2007

The Other Shoe

For Monday,

Everyone is waiting for the Fed Rate cut to be announced Tuesday. There is little news until then.

Friday's action points higher for Monday - I have an upside bias for Monday although I don't expect much volatility.

I think the S&P will lazily continue its walk upward until the Fed announcement Tuesday afternoon. Buy the breaks on pullback - if pullback is on lower volume -


Volume Weighted Pivot, support and resistance for Monday, Dec 9th 2007:

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Unemployment Friday

For Friday:

If there is one report a month (besides Fed announcements) to watch out for - it is Unemployment Situation. Big News - and this one will have a significant impact of the Fed game plan for being "flexible" concerning national economic policy.

Do not try to fade the moves upon release of the report - trade with the volume if you must - if you are new to trading wait until the markets settle down - there will be PLENTY of opportunity tomorrow.

Friday Reports:
Employment Situation 8:30ET

Consumer Sentiment 10:00ET
Consumer Credit 3:00ET

Volume Driven Support and Resistance for Friday, Dec 7th -



"A day which will live in infamy." FDR. (please take a moment to remember our fallen shipmates)

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Better Reaction

For Thursday:

As I said yesterday, the bear move Tuesday was unhealthy; Open Interest confirmed by coming in much lower - The Up Move Wednesday I suspect was a boost from long term money expecting the Fed to cut rates. I am still not expecting huge volatility before Unemployment is released Friday morning but my recommendation is trade with an upward bias for Thursday. Buy the dips when done on low volume - this is profit taking.

Thursday Reports:
Jobless Claims 8:30ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30ET
Money Supply 4:30ET

Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers for Thursday:

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Home on the Range

For Wednesday:

Interesting market action... Slips in prices in the eMini S&Ps and eMini Russell both done on low volume and in the case of the S&Ps LOWER Open Interest - all signs of an unhealthy, and therefor unsustainable, bear move. Market is clearly poised for Unemployment Situation on Friday as a huge indicator of what the Fed will do on the 11th. In the meantime trade the range - just be careful of the powerful volume-backed drives - DO NOT fade these! Market Profile will help identify these.

And speaking of Market Profile...Wednesday after the close, 4:30 ET (3:30 Central), Charlie Cochran of TradeMaven Inside Edge will be giving a free seminar on the use of Market Profile in the TradeMaven Software. Come see how Market Profile can be used to find areas of value and trade location in the markets.

join us Wednesday, Dec 5th at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven

This is a FREE seminar open to all. No password is necessary.


Wednesday Reports:


MBA Purchase Applications - 7am ET
Challenger Job-Cut - 7:30am ET
ADP Employment - 8:15am ET
Productivity and Costs - 8:30am ET
Factory Orders - 10am ET
ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey - 10am ET
Pending Home Sales - 10am ET

Volume Weighted Support and Resistance Numbers for Wednesday, Dec 5th:

Monday, December 3, 2007

Just Back From Iowa

Finally Made it back today - It was a rough drive -

I see that moved a bit lower on a low volume day - watch what happens when volume rushes back into the market - A slow news day tomorrow should provide some good scalp trades -

Support and Resistance points should work well tomorrow - lean against them. If a 2 point stop is not working in the emini S&P for you (1) shift to a 5 min chart; (2) If the market rallies though resistance on low volume - hold - (3) if it starts to rally in good size volume don't wait for 2 points, flatten ASAP.

Wednesday after the close (3:30 Central) Charlie Cochran of TradeMaven Inside Edge willl be giving a free seminar on the use of Market Profile. Come see how Market Profile can be used to find areas of value and trade location in the markets.

join us Wednesday, Dec 5th at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
This is a FREE seminar open to all.

Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Dec 4th:

Sunday, December 2, 2007

Greetings From Iowa

For Monday:

Due to weather conditions I am updating the blog from a little motel in Harlan, IA.

We've got a little bullish reaction to the speculation that the Fed will cut rates during the upcoming meeting on the 11th - till then I expect will climb higher in the emini S&P - But long term I'm bearish.

Monday Reports:
ISM Mfg Index 10:00ET
Motor Vehicle Sales 4:00ET

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Monday, Dec 3rd, 2007