For Tuesday:
Guest Commentator Charles Cochran:
A very quiet day until the day session closed and shorts covered and new buying took the market to 115-00 and a day session close at 114-11. Weakness in the ES, recession stories in the press, a long term sentiment that the Fed will steadily be cutting interest rates and the Dealers holding last week’s 10Y Notes all could have combined to rally the Bond. The lack of size offers was probably the biggest factor in the post day session surge to 115-00. If the ES doesn’t plummet in the OVN market, I would expect a pull back to the 114-16/20 area. If 114-16/20 holds as support, the Bond can trade higher tomorrow. Some housing sector news to contend with that could be better than forecast too. Looking to buy weakness in the OVN and AM markets.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F 1 Comments: Support held at the edge of the bracket. Both volume and prices were higher. Market’s bias remains a bracket.
F2 Comments: The OVN session retested support and it held. The rest of the day session was a slow grind higher until the day session closed and the buying accelerated. Illiquidity forced the shorts to pay up and they did w/115-00 touched on the close. If 114-16/20 holds as support, we will assume some new buying too. The analysis favors higher tomorrow. We want to buy early weakness and see if 115-00 can be taken out. Tomorrow’s news is housing related. If the #’s are lower than forecast, the market should attempt to trade higher. Buy zone has moved up to 114-17/21. Back up buy is 114-13 OB. If ES recovers OVN, should be able to buy a little better. If lower, probably will have to pay up.
F 4 Comments: Analysis was to sell 114-07/11 and buy, if 113-28/114-00 holds. Multiple opportunities to trade from either side.
Guest Commentator Charles Cochran:
A very quiet day until the day session closed and shorts covered and new buying took the market to 115-00 and a day session close at 114-11. Weakness in the ES, recession stories in the press, a long term sentiment that the Fed will steadily be cutting interest rates and the Dealers holding last week’s 10Y Notes all could have combined to rally the Bond. The lack of size offers was probably the biggest factor in the post day session surge to 115-00. If the ES doesn’t plummet in the OVN market, I would expect a pull back to the 114-16/20 area. If 114-16/20 holds as support, the Bond can trade higher tomorrow. Some housing sector news to contend with that could be better than forecast too. Looking to buy weakness in the OVN and AM markets.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F 1 Comments: Support held at the edge of the bracket. Both volume and prices were higher. Market’s bias remains a bracket.
F2 Comments: The OVN session retested support and it held. The rest of the day session was a slow grind higher until the day session closed and the buying accelerated. Illiquidity forced the shorts to pay up and they did w/115-00 touched on the close. If 114-16/20 holds as support, we will assume some new buying too. The analysis favors higher tomorrow. We want to buy early weakness and see if 115-00 can be taken out. Tomorrow’s news is housing related. If the #’s are lower than forecast, the market should attempt to trade higher. Buy zone has moved up to 114-17/21. Back up buy is 114-13 OB. If ES recovers OVN, should be able to buy a little better. If lower, probably will have to pay up.
F 4 Comments: Analysis was to sell 114-07/11 and buy, if 113-28/114-00 holds. Multiple opportunities to trade from either side. 
