New Year's Eve

For Monday,

The last day of the year - Today, I would expect moderate volume today to the upside. Buy the eMini S&P's at the support points. When the markets re-open on Wednesday the market will continue the intermediate bear trend. 

Upcoming Reports:
Monday -
Existing Home Sales - 10:00am ET

Wednesday
FOMC Minutes - 2:00pm ET (a BIG one) 

Thursday
Jobless Claims - 8:30am ET

Friday
Employment Situation - 8:30am ET (a BIG one)


Holiday Trading Hours:
CME Equity Index (eMini S&P, Russell) - The CME Globex will close for the New Year's Holiday at 3:15pm Central on Monday, December 31 and will not open until 5am on Wednesday, January 2nd. - If you have questions about a specific market - let me know - josh@trademaven.com


Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for Monday, Dec 31st:

The News

For Friday,

Markets fell sharply on fundamental news this morning - notice more volume traded today than Wednesday - When this happens you need to be flexible;

doubling down or "dollar-cost averaging" into a trade is a losing proposition - I've seen it a thousand times.

When you are wrong (and you know when you are) - cover the trade.

Friday Reports:
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
Help Wanted Index 10:00 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET
Farm Prices 3:00 ET

Holiday Trading Hours:
CME Equity Index (eMini S&P, Russell) - The CME Globex will close for the New Year's Holiday at 3:15pm Central on Monday, December 31 and will not open until 5am on Wednesday, January 2nd. - If you have questions about a specific market - let me know - josh@trademaven.com


Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for Friday, Dec 28th:

The Lone Bull

For Thursday,

We're still moving a bit higher for the time being - great for the pivot level traders - Thee is not a lot of volume out there - look for the bears to return after the new year begins.

I am going to hold a introduction to TradeMaven class next week on Thursday, Jan 3rd.
If you are interested in attending please let me know.


Upcoming Reports -
Thursday:
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Friday:
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Volume Weighted Support and Resistance for Thursday Dec 27th:

The Legend

For Wednesday (the Day after Christmas):

The light volume of the holidays will cause this little uptrend to continue into the new year - but when the heavier volume comes back, down we'll go.

Why the "legend" title ? - because I saw I Am Legend this weekend and it freaked me out. Set - I give it 4 out of 5 stars.


Upcoming Reports -
Wednesday:
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET

Thursday:
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Friday:
NAPM-Chicago 9:45 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Volume Weighted Support and Resistance for Wednesday Dec 26th:

The Return

For Friday:

I'm back on the stick - S&P rallied in the afternoon on fundamentals but I doubt this will continue tomorrow - I expect to be range bound with an eye towards moving lower.

Friday Reports:
Personal Income and Outlays - 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment - 10:00 ET

Volume weighted pivot, support and resistance for Friday, Dec 20th:

Finals -

The numbers will return tonight - I have been finishing up with final exams this week.

Comments by Charles

Comments by guest commentator Charles Cochran:


The market traded higher post market on the 17th. Gave it up when the ES rallied OVN off the ECB injection of 500 Byn of cash into the European markets. And when the ES couldn’t hold its OVN gains rallied form 114-14 to hit 115-20 before the buying was spent. The close was strong. The market activity analysis favors higher prices w/out news. Tomorrow’s news is limited to the API’s/crude inventories. So I would imagine the focus will again be the ES’s direction. Housing Start/Permit news was supportive for Bonds and not for ES. So news environment the same. Dealers may have worked off some of their 10Y Note inventories today too. Want to buy early weakness and see if 115-22 can be taken out, if ES is sideways to lower.

F1 Comments: Market once again traded higher w/both volume and prices higher on the close. Market’s bias remains a trading range w/out obvious news.

F2 Comments: The Bond rallied after the ES gave up its OVN gains. The inverse relationship continues. The exaggerated reactions to news and range extensions will continue until the full market returns after the first of the year. The early news was supportive. The ES sold. And the Bond rallied. 1,2,3! The close was strong. The market activity analysis favors higher prices w/out news. Only news tomorrow is the API’s and that shouldn’t be much of a factor. If the ES is sideways to lower, we will stick w/our post market comments buy recommendation at 115-01/05. If 115-16/20 holds, will exit the trade.

F 4 Comments: Analysis was to buy weakness, 114-16/20. The low was 114-14. Multiple opportunities from the buy side into lunch

Comments From Charles

For Tuesday:

Guest Commentator Charles Cochran:

A very quiet day until the day session closed and shorts covered and new buying took the market to 115-00 and a day session close at 114-11. Weakness in the ES, recession stories in the press, a long term sentiment that the Fed will steadily be cutting interest rates and the Dealers holding last week’s 10Y Notes all could have combined to rally the Bond. The lack of size offers was probably the biggest factor in the post day session surge to 115-00. If the ES doesn’t plummet in the OVN market, I would expect a pull back to the 114-16/20 area. If 114-16/20 holds as support, the Bond can trade higher tomorrow. Some housing sector news to contend with that could be better than forecast too. Looking to buy weakness in the OVN and AM markets.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



F 1 Comments: Support held at the edge of the bracket. Both volume and prices were higher. Market’s bias remains a bracket.



F2 Comments: The OVN session retested support and it held. The rest of the day session was a slow grind higher until the day session closed and the buying accelerated. Illiquidity forced the shorts to pay up and they did w/115-00 touched on the close. If 114-16/20 holds as support, we will assume some new buying too. The analysis favors higher tomorrow. We want to buy early weakness and see if 115-00 can be taken out. Tomorrow’s news is housing related. If the #’s are lower than forecast, the market should attempt to trade higher. Buy zone has moved up to 114-17/21. Back up buy is 114-13 OB. If ES recovers OVN, should be able to buy a little better. If lower, probably will have to pay up.



F 4 Comments: Analysis was to sell 114-07/11 and buy, if 113-28/114-00 holds. Multiple opportunities to trade from either side.

The Holiday Blues

For Monday

Still trading the short side of the market - sell the rallies against resistance -


Upcoming Reports:
Monday
Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 ET
Tuesday
Housing Starts 8:30 ET

Volume Weighted Support and Resistance for Monday, December 17th, 2007

The Vulnerablility

For Friday,

The fromer Fed Chairman and author Alan Greenspan when asked by NPR if the country was heading into a recession stated, "We are far more vulnerable at levels where growth is so slow than we would be otherwise."

You can't get clearer than that folks - pure genius

Friday Reports:
Consumer Price Index - 8:30 ET
Industrial Production - 9:15 ET

The Rollover

For Thursday,

You should be trading the March contracts in the emini S&P and other equity index futures -
On your TradeMaven -
1. select "Trading"
2. Select "Profiles" - This will pull up the profile logon mini-screen.
3. The bottome drop-down selector is "Contract Expiration"
on PATS - Change this to MAR 08; on TradeMaven Sim- Change to H8.

Open Interest -
Here is where I get the OI figures - http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/hist/dbindex.html

Rollover doesn't matt - you are looking at TOTAL OPEN INTEREST - Higher OI on falling market indicated the trend will continue lower.

Open interest rose on the Fed Announcement on falling prices - trend is going lower - higher OI off todays move will be a huge confimation - that will hit the site early tomorrow - Continue to sell

Volume Driven Support and resistance for Thursday Dec 13th:

Aftermath

Well i was half right...

Market did break on the news, but like the Energizer Bunny it kept going, and going...

Long term I have been bearish and depending what Open Interest shows (and I betcha it's up) it look like a bearich holiday season.

So trade from the short side -


Wednesday Reports:
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
Import and Export Prices 8:30 ET

Volume Driven Support and Resistance for Wednesday Dec 12th

The Big Day

For Tuesday:

It should be a slow day before the Fed announcement at 2:15pm ET. I expect the eMini S&Ps to rally a bit more before the market opens for regular trading hours and find a channel to trade before the announcement.

The Fed is expected to announce a 25 bp cut; the market has been buying off this news for the last two weeks. I would expect a break (down move) initially off the news, followed by making new highs shortly thereafter.

BE CAREFUL TRADING THE ANNOUNCEMENT - take profits quickly.

Call me with any questions - 800-845-9685

BTW - eMini's will Rollover to the March contract Thursday Morning -

Volume Driven Support and Resistance for Tuesday Dec 11th 2007:

The Other Shoe

For Monday,

Everyone is waiting for the Fed Rate cut to be announced Tuesday. There is little news until then.

Friday's action points higher for Monday - I have an upside bias for Monday although I don't expect much volatility.

I think the S&P will lazily continue its walk upward until the Fed announcement Tuesday afternoon. Buy the breaks on pullback - if pullback is on lower volume -


Volume Weighted Pivot, support and resistance for Monday, Dec 9th 2007:

Unemployment Friday

For Friday:

If there is one report a month (besides Fed announcements) to watch out for - it is Unemployment Situation. Big News - and this one will have a significant impact of the Fed game plan for being "flexible" concerning national economic policy.

Do not try to fade the moves upon release of the report - trade with the volume if you must - if you are new to trading wait until the markets settle down - there will be PLENTY of opportunity tomorrow.

Friday Reports:
Employment Situation 8:30ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00ET
Consumer Credit 3:00ET

Volume Driven Support and Resistance for Friday, Dec 7th -



"A day which will live in infamy." FDR. (please take a moment to remember our fallen shipmates)

Better Reaction

For Thursday:

As I said yesterday, the bear move Tuesday was unhealthy; Open Interest confirmed by coming in much lower - The Up Move Wednesday I suspect was a boost from long term money expecting the Fed to cut rates. I am still not expecting huge volatility before Unemployment is released Friday morning but my recommendation is trade with an upward bias for Thursday. Buy the dips when done on low volume - this is profit taking.

Thursday Reports:
Jobless Claims 8:30ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30ET
Money Supply 4:30ET

Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers for Thursday:

Home on the Range

For Wednesday:

Interesting market action... Slips in prices in the eMini S&Ps and eMini Russell both done on low volume and in the case of the S&Ps LOWER Open Interest - all signs of an unhealthy, and therefor unsustainable, bear move. Market is clearly poised for Unemployment Situation on Friday as a huge indicator of what the Fed will do on the 11th. In the meantime trade the range - just be careful of the powerful volume-backed drives - DO NOT fade these! Market Profile will help identify these.

And speaking of Market Profile...Wednesday after the close, 4:30 ET (3:30 Central), Charlie Cochran of TradeMaven Inside Edge will be giving a free seminar on the use of Market Profile in the TradeMaven Software. Come see how Market Profile can be used to find areas of value and trade location in the markets.

join us Wednesday, Dec 5th at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven

This is a FREE seminar open to all. No password is necessary.


Wednesday Reports:

MBA Purchase Applications - 7am ET
Challenger Job-Cut - 7:30am ET
ADP Employment - 8:15am ET
Productivity and Costs - 8:30am ET
Factory Orders - 10am ET
ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey - 10am ET
Pending Home Sales - 10am ET

Volume Weighted Support and Resistance Numbers for Wednesday, Dec 5th:

Just Back From Iowa

Finally Made it back today - It was a rough drive -

I see that moved a bit lower on a low volume day - watch what happens when volume rushes back into the market - A slow news day tomorrow should provide some good scalp trades -

Support and Resistance points should work well tomorrow - lean against them. If a 2 point stop is not working in the emini S&P for you (1) shift to a 5 min chart; (2) If the market rallies though resistance on low volume - hold - (3) if it starts to rally in good size volume don't wait for 2 points, flatten ASAP.

Wednesday after the close (3:30 Central) Charlie Cochran of TradeMaven Inside Edge willl be giving a free seminar on the use of Market Profile. Come see how Market Profile can be used to find areas of value and trade location in the markets.

join us Wednesday, Dec 5th at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
This is a FREE seminar open to all.

Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Dec 4th:

Greetings From Iowa

For Monday:

Due to weather conditions I am updating the blog from a little motel in Harlan, IA.

We've got a little bullish reaction to the speculation that the Fed will cut rates during the upcoming meeting on the 11th - till then I expect will climb higher in the emini S&P - But long term I'm bearish.

Monday Reports:
ISM Mfg Index 10:00ET
Motor Vehicle Sales 4:00ET

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Monday, Dec 3rd, 2007

Headwinds

For Friday,

As our Federal Reserve Chairman indicated, the Fed will be "flexible" considering the country's credit issues and rising oil prices. A rate cut of at least 25 basis points is expected vice early rumors of 50bp. Eminis should push a bit higher Friday heading into the end of the month and the weekend.

Reports On Friday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30ET
NAPM-Chicago 9:45ET
Construction Spending 10:00ET
Farm Prices 3:00ET

Like the Fed, be flexible - buy the breaks at support and sell rallies at resistance - tight stops if you are still not using Market Profile.

On that note - Wednesday, Dec 5th we are going to have a training seminar on the CBOT's Market Profile - details to follow - but mark you calendar.

Pivot Support and Resistance Numbers for Friday, Nov. 30th:

Rolaids, Anyone?

For Thursday:
"Yet, the hope that the Federal Reserve will cut a key interest rate for a third time this year to energize the economy sent stocks soaring on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrials jumped for the second day in a row, gaining 331.01 points to close at 13,289.45. It marked the index's biggest two-day point gain in five years." writes Jeannine Aversa of the Associated Press.

Hopes and fears is what is driving the markets lately. We reported to you on Monday that the Fed is going to cut rates again - but this is a quick fix for a LARGE problem. The key will be to look at Open Interest in the morning - a negative number indicates the bear trend will continue - large positive number indicates a true trend change -
I am still thinking this was a relief rally - still biased towards the downside.

Tomorrow is the last day the December contract will be the lead month for the T-Bonds; Friday morning we'll start trading the March '08 contract. E-mini S&P's and Russell will rollover on the 13th.

Upcoming Reports:
GDP (preliminary) 8:30ET
Jobless Claims 8:30ET
Help Wanted Index 10:00ET
New Home Sales 10:00ET

Huge Volatility Ahead - a great chance to make some money.

Support and Resistance Numbers for Thursday, Nov 29th:

For Wednesday

Rallies today off of Citi Bank's news was not what I would consider very strong.

Durable Goods and Existing Home sales reports will remind us Wednesday morning of the current state of the economy. I am still bearish looking to sell the rallies.

Pivot Support and resistance levels for Wednesday, Nov 28th:

Comments From Charles

For Tuesday:


The bear trend will continue. Below is a sample of the daily research available as a member of the TradeMaven Inside Edge User Group with Pivots Below:



Charles Cochran posted: What a day! The sentiment changed today in the Bond markets w/the Bond trading up to 119-12 before its close at 118-24. This is signaling a cut in the Fed Funds of at least 50 bp or that the US is headed for a recession, not a soft landing. The next FOMC meeting is 12-11-07. 50 bp is expected. To buoy the market it will take more than a 50 bp cut. The structure and prices support higher prices. Buying into weakness remains the best play (For the T-Bond, sell the rallies in the ES or ER2 - JK).

Little news tomorrow. Consumer Confidence is expected at 91.5. Would guess this number will be less than forecast. The pressure to act is increasing on everyone.


F1 Comments: Both prices and volume moved higher today and with momentum. The structure and bias supports higher prices. If today’s move was it, then tomorrow should be a day where the market finds a level to trade around. Could be 118-24/28.

F2 Comments: Strong buying that entered the market in waves after 117-16 fell. The shorts had to pay up to cover their positions. If the buying exhausted itself this afternoon, I think the market will seek a level to trade/distribute around. I see 118-24± as a possible number for the market to begin to trade around. Little in the way of news this morning. Focus should be the ES’s direction. The ES is poised to take out 1400 tomorrow. If so, the Bond should see some new buying. If the buying doesn’t get started early tomorrow morning, I expect a pause day w/sellers above 119-04 and buyers against 118-10. Want to buy into early weakness at 118-13/17 and see if 119-00/04 can be taken out. If resistance holds, can trade from the short side too.





F4 Comments: The analysis was to be a buyer. Multiple opportunities to buy advantageously throughout the session off the software’s signals.









Pivot, Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Nov 27:

Door Busters

For Monday:

The last two days of the TradeMaven Inside Edge Open House are Monday Nov 26th and Tuesday Nov 27th. TradeMaven Inside Edge is a comprehensive trader’s education forum focused on e-Mini S&Ps and U.S. Treasury Bond Futures. This unique forum is the brainchild of Charles Cochran – a trading pro who has spent the last 15 years fine-tuning a proven methodology that eliminates extraneous information and concentrates on the market activity that foretells the market's next move.

TradeMaven Inside Edge features the necessary analytics and execution information in one place to speed up your decision process, keep you on the right side of the market, and eliminate so much of the noise that surrounds trading today.

Join us Monday Morning at 7am Central in our Chat Room; the trial is FREE.

Click on this link: www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven to enter the chat room. The Password is "education".

Monday's Outlook
The rally on Friday was done on low volume. It appears that everyone was up early to go shopping for "door busters" rather than trading. Retail stores were reporting large crowds (and my wife was out there at 4am...crazy) but the day after Thanksgiving is the pivotal day for retail sales. I am expecting lower overall sales this holiday season. Add this to the current economic climate and this bear trend will continue until the next Fed interest rate cut (at least).

So don't be fooled by low volume rallies and door busters; trade the short side until the market shifts -

Upcoming Reports: Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Nov 27th @9am Central.

Pivot Support and Resistance levels for Monday, November 26th:

Wednesday Before Thanksgiving

Wednesday morning we will continue the OPEN HOUSE for the TradeMaven Inside Edge Online Chat room.

Please join us all this week for live commentary over the eMini S&P and T-Bond futures.
We will also have a complete overview of the program after the close Wednesday, for those who cannot join us during the trading day.

Login at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven

the password is "education"

TradeMaven Inside Edge is a comprehensive trader’s education forum focused on e-Mini S&Ps and U.S. Treasury Bond Futures.

TradeMaven Inside Edge features the necessary analytics and execution information in one place to speed up your decision process, keep you on the right side of the market.

Upcoming Reports:
Jobless Claims @ 7:30, Consumer Sentiment and Leading Indicators @ 9:00 am Central.

I expect the market to make lows off the news and then make a slow rally back going into the Holiday.

Pivot, Support and Resistance For Wednesday, Nov 21st:

Comments by Charles

For Tuesday: My outlook on the market hasn't changed, so I have posted Charlie's Comments from the TradeMaven Inside Edge (TIE) user group site.

The second day of the OPEN HOUSE of the TIE Chatroom begins Tuesday Morning at 7am central.

Here is the link: www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven - the password is "education".

Charlie's Comments:

ES was pressured today and this took the Bond higher. Another new high for the Bond and the ES is close to taking out support at 1433/35. Its not the ES that is taking the Bond lower. It is the weakening economy that is taking the ES lower and supporting the Bond. The bond market remains in an uptrend. Tomorrow’s news is housing based and could easily come in lower than forecast, which would be supportive for the Bonds. With some help from the news the Bond is poised to trade higher tomorrow morning.

F1 Comments: Both price and volume moved higher and extended their ranges. They held these gains into the close. The market is pointed higher. Longer term we are buyers of weakness.



















F2 Comments: Market traded to new highs on this move. 116-00 fell and the buyers held their positions into the close. The economic news OVN was conducive for the Bonds and not so for the ES. The economic news continues to pressure the ES and it will take a big piece of news to change this. Some news tomorrow---Housing Starts is expected at 1.175M and Permits at 1.200M. We want to buy early weakness and see if 116-17/20 can be taken out. If 116-17/20 is rejected and the ES is showing some strength, could take a quick short and see if the market can get through support at 116-00/04. Buy 116-01/05. Exit, if 116-17/20 holds.







F4 Comments: Analysis was to buy the Bond. Multiple trades from the long side of the market throughout the session.












Pivot, Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Nov 20:

Closing the Vegas TradersExpo

For Monday:

This week is the OPEN HOUSE for the TradeMaven Inside Edge Online Chat room.

TradeMaven Inside Edge is a comprehensive trader’s education forum focused on e-Mini S&Ps and U.S. Treasury Bond Futures.

TradeMaven Inside Edge features the necessary analytics and execution information in one place to speed up your decision process, keep you on the right side of the market.

Please join us all this week for live commentary over the eMini S&P and T-Bond futures. The Methodology works folks - come take a look.

Login at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven

the password is "education"

Upcoming Reports:
Housing Starts and FOMC Minutes will both be released on Tuesday.
Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment and Leading Indicators will be released Wednesday - nothing on Thanksgiving, of course.

The afternoon rally Friday was expected to close out the weekend - meaning the down trend should continue. Sell the rallies against the resistance points.

Pivot, Support and Resistance For Monday, Nov 19th

For Friday, TradersExpo Day 2

Well, we definitely got the break I was looking for yesterday. Open Interest is always the key to figuring the trends next move. I will spend more time on open interest in the training seminars coming up.

I expect this downward trend to continue in the morning followed by short covering rally in the afternoon heading into the weekend. Sell the rallies in the morning - buy the breaks once the rally starts.

Reports for today: Industrial Production released at 8:15 am Central

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Nov 16th:

Thursday - TradersExpo Day 1

I will be traveling tomorrow morning and will be at the TradeMaven Booth in the Afternoon.

Reports out tomorrow: CPI and Jobless Claims will be released at 7:30am Central.

Rallies in the emini S&P futures were done on falling open interest which suggests that these are short covering of longer term traders - I'm still Bearish.

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Thursday, Nov 15th:

Wednesday Before The Show

I was eating red grapes yesterday with my 3-year-old, Kiki. "Where do grapes come from?" I asked her - "Wal-Mart" she replied.

The Great WAL-MART! We're all suckers for cheap stuff (insert alternate word here). WAL-Mart's earnings jump-started WAL-Street today. This is the reported root cause for the rally in the eMini S&P's and related markets today.

Well, "a cheap price is a cheap thrill" - so I'm not BUY-ing (get it?), yet. Strong volume came with this rally today, but I'm thinking we have not seen the end of the Bearish Fall we're having. Read the comments from yesterday again - good stuff (and like WAL-Mart, cheap.)

Reports Tomorrow - PPI and Retail Sales are released Wednesday - these will be the numbers to watch.


Pivot, Support and Resistance for Wednesday, Nov 14th:

For Tuesday, Nov 13th

We will be giving an encore presentation of the TradeMaven Inside Edge Methodology!
Join us TUESDAY after the close in the Inside Edge Chat Room: http://trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
The password is “trademaven”. We’ll start at 3:30pm Central / 4:30 Eastern.

Pending Home Sales index will be published at 9am Central followed by the Treasury Budget at 2pm; I cannot believe either of these reports will bring bullish news. PPI, producer price index, will come out Wednesday Morning.

Sell resistance and as the price trends through support levels, sell when the market rallies back to those levels. Markets are cyclical; in a downward trend the market will hit a new low and then rotate toward a lower high, this is the area to sell. (downward trend = lower lows and lower highs) Setting a 2 point stop is inadequate protection. If the market goes against you on little volume traded, stick with the position. If your position turns against you on HIGH volume – dump it immediately!

We’ll be at the Las Vegas Traders Expo later in the week; details are posted on the homepage: www.trademaven.com. So if you are looking to punch me out for my market analysis, I’ll be there.

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Nov 13th:

Veteran's Day

Bonds are closed, but the Emini Equity Index Futures will continue trading Monday morning.

The holiday may make for some small rallies as there is little news on Monday. The bear trend will continue for the time being will rallies this week generated by 3rd quarter earnings from key companies. Look to sell the rallies -

PPI, Retail Sales, CPI and other reports are due out later in the week -

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Monday, Nov 12th:

Comments by Charles

Another stock market sell-off and the Bond was higher. The flight to quality play is intact. The Bond stalled at 114-15/16 until the selling in the ES picked up again. The Bond rallied to retest its recent high at 114-25. One quick sell off as day traders liquidated their positions. The close was strong. The Bond market is set to take out 115-00 w/a little help from the ES. Tuesday’s market could take the Bond through 115-00. Will update the Bond after Monday’s holiday.

F1 Comments: Once again volume and price moved higher. As long as the Bond continues to build volume above 113-04/08 the Bond is pointed higher. The bias remains for higher prices.

F2 Comments: Not a difficult day to foretell and call. The ES was lower. The news was supportive. And the Bond traded higher. It was a double distribution day w/114-25, a recent chart retested and it held. The close was strong. The analysis favors higher prices w/out news and a recovering ES. The focus remains the stock market, a softening economy and inflation down the road. Light news w/Pending Home Sales expected at ??? . Last month’s number was-2.0%. If the ES is sideways to lower, we want to buy early weakness and see if 115-00 can be taken out. Resistance is at 114-29/30, 115-13 and 115-20/24. Buy zone is 114-13/17. Exit, if 114-29/30 holds. OK to get short, if the ES is in a strong rally or if 114-29/115-00 holds. Market then has to take out 114-15 to stay short.

F4 Comments: Analysis favored the buy side. But could take a short, if the ES rallied. F4 screen generated multiple trades from either side of the market.

For Friday, Nov 9th

The TradeMaven Inside Edge daily chatroom will be open to visitors tomorrow (Friday) morning and throughout the day. Come see our Software and Methodology in live action!

Sign in at http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
the password will be "Apollo11"

Trading Volume is still rather heavy with Open Interest rising (up 30,000 contracts according to Wednesday's figure), so this bear market will continue - follow the trend.

Reports Due out on Friday: Import and Export Prices 7:30am Central; Consumer Sentiment 9:00 Central.

VETERANS DAY TRADING HOURS: eMini S&P and Russell 2000 trading hours will not change, but the Bonds Fuures and related contracts will close at 12:00 (noon Central) and remain closed for Monday. If you have any question on a particular market - let me know.

Next week I'll be taking my show on the road. If you are planning to be at the Las Vegas Traders Expo - drop by and see me at the TradeMaven booth. TradeMaven users will get a special gift for stopping by.

Pivot Levels and Support and Resistance for Friday, Nov 9th:

The Healthy Bear Market

"The market has a memory like your spouse," I said in my webinar today. "It remembers the crappy decisions that you made and It can cost you lots of Money." (I like my own jokes)

This is just the beginning folks, Jobless Claims at 7:30am Central followed by Nat Gas report will continue this bear move. Volume is up - Open Interest (I suspect) is rising on lower (and lower) prices, all signs of a healthy bear market - continue to sell rallies in the emini S&P's and Russell. Look at buying breaks in the Bond Futures and Euro FX Futures.

Join me in the TradeMaven’s Inside Edge Room Thursday at 4:30 ET (3:30 Central) for TradeMaven Inside Edge Intro Seminar.

www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven, the password is “trademaven”

Pivot, Support and Resistance Levels for Thursday Nov 8th:

Wednesday Late Morning

Pivot Levels revised for the morning break in the emini S&P and emini Russell:

Hump Day - Nov 7th

Wednesday Things to DO:

1. Upgrade to TradeMaven 4.1.7 - GET it HERE - www.tmdownloads.com
TradeMaven's latest version is now released, link above, if you have questions about upgrading give us a call.

2. Reports to Keep My eye on - MBA Purchase Applications 6am Central, Productivity and Costs at 7:30am, and Consumer Credit at 2pm.

3. Write Down the Pivot Levels on Josh's Blog - http://takethetrade.blogspot.com

4. Take The Trade!

AND DON'T FORGET: Market Profile Training! - join me in the online training room at 3:30pm Central at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven - password is TradeMaven. We are going to continue our training from last week covering value in the markets and how to use the pivot levels.

"Relief Rally" was a new term I learned today - it means this is a short upturn in a downward trend. - With little news to suggest a reversal, and little long term technical info - I think the trend will continue DOWN - I may be wrong, but I think Consumer Credit will be the fundamental news to watch - Daily Open Interest will be what I'll check in the a.m. Use the numbers!


Pivot, Support and Resistance for Nov 7th:

For Tuesday, Nov 6th

Should be a slow news day tomorrow; some reports due out Wednesday are MBA Purchase Applications (which should further confirm current housing slump)at 6am Central, Productivity and Costs at 7:30am, and Consumer Credit at 2pm.

Long story short - I had to pull 180 days of data to look at volume stats to do the numbers tonight, which means to me that the trend will continue to carry the market lower - sell rallies in the eMini S&P and Russell - buy breaks in the Bonds.

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Nov 6th:



Charlie's Post Market Comments: (Geared toward the Bonds)

A quiet pause day w/little in the way to drive prices. ES was sold and Bond bought off the ISM Services news, which was just the opposite of what was expected. Financial woes trumped supportive economic news until the Bond’s close. The biggest dynamic in the Bond market this week is the 10 and 30Y bond auctions. Couple these auctions with whether the ES sells or not and you have defined this week’s directional puzzle. I think the market will trade a range until the ES sorts itself out. If lower, the Bond should take out 115-00. IF higher, the Bond has just retested the highs of a three year trading range, which held.

F1 Comments: While the market didn’t build volume above Friday’s volume, it did hold Friday’s gains for the most part. As long as the market holds above the 113-22/27 level, the market can trade higher. The market’s bias remains higher.



F2 Comments: Monday’s market was a sideways to lower market w/the highs set in the OVN session after the CitiCorp write down news hit the tape. A recovery of the ES after this news brought light selling to the Bond w/113-27 tested before a close at 114-01. As long as 113-22/26 holds, the market can trade higher. No news on tap this morning. The Bond should take its clues from the ES. If the ES is lower, we want to buy early weakness and see if 114-08/10 can be taken out. If it holds, we will look to the short side of the market. Buy 113-29/114-01. Exit, if 114-08/10 holds. If 114-08/10 holds, OK to get short. Cover, if 113-27/114-00 proves to be support.


Analysis was to buy 113-29/114-01 w/an exit if 114-16/21 is rejected. Multiple trades from either side of the market.

For Monday, Nov 5th

The Unemployment Situation report released on Friday should have had a more bullish impact on the eMini S&P. S&P's rallied on the news - but before the regular trading hours opened; after that they fell out of bed.

Fridays late afternoon rallies was due to Short position covering and speculative scalping - So I am expecting Monday morning to continue its move down.

Sell rallies - hard stops not working for you? ask me about flexible stops using the market profile. We will do more training on the profile on Wednesday.

Pivot, Support and Resistance for Monday, Nov 5th:

For Friday, Oct 2nd

Unemployment Situation will be released at 7:30 am Central.

This Big news in the morning will round out a volatile week in the eMini S&P and similar markets.

We got the drop today I was expecting, so I will be looking at shorting rallies against the
Resistance Numbers (or previous Support.)

The Fed's reminder of inflation was reported as the cause for Wall Street fears as equities fell and I also read Ford and Chrysler are cutting jobs - not great for the economy - Sell it folks

Sell those rallies as the maret trends down – the trend is you friend.

Support and Resistance Numbers for Friday, Nov 2nd, 2007:

From Charlie, re: Bonds

Stock market articles – earnings and credit woes were the feature and the ES responded and crashed.

The bond rallied back to where it was before the FOMC announcement. The Bond is positioned to trade higher and at the top end of its range awaiting tomorrow’s news. If the NFP doesn’t come in lower than forecast, the is plenty of room for disappointment. NFP is expected at 83K and he market’s focus.

Know the news and you have the trade.

Thursday, Nov 1, 2007

So the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points today - time will tell if this will boost our economy - still more news due out this week:

Jobless Claims and Personal Income will be released 7:30 am followed by ISM Manufacturing Index at 9am (these time are Central) - these reports plus Unemployment Friday will keep the markets moving and give us a look at how the markets will trend for the last two months of the year.

Market Profile Training Tomorrow in the Inside Edge Room at 3:30 pm Central - I'll go over everything from using the Profile to how I come up with my pivot levels - don't miss it -

http://www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
password: trademaven

Pivot Levels and Support and Resistance for Nov 01, 2007:

For Wednesday - FOMC Announcement Day

Who doesn't know the FOMC will be announcing a rate cut tomorrow? The big question is how much? 25 or 50 basis points?

Consumer confidence is low (is there an echo in this blog?) The interest rate cuts are designed to boost the economy, but that boost is already in the eMini S&P and Russell 2000 Futures.

An announcement of a 1/4 pt cut will deflate the index futures - the wild card is the 1/2 pt cut, a long shot but will likely cause rallies- SO... trade the range until the call comes in at 1:15 - looking to short on the news.

The blog now has a link on the TradeMaven Website - http://www.trademaven.com/ -

TradeMaven Market Profile Training on Thursday at 3:30 pm Central - join me in the TradeMaven Inside Edge Room - http://trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven.
The password will be "trademaven".

Happy Halloween!

Pivot Support and Resistance Levels
for Wednesday, October 31st:

For Tuesday, Oct 30

Consumer Confidence is due out tomorrow morning at 9:00 am Central - it is unlikely to produce a significant effect on the eMini S&P the day before the Fed Announces the results of its meeting.

"BUY the rumor, sell the fact" - my typo from yesterday did not get by my readers. (I put them in there to see if you're paying attention)

It would be very difficult to trade the news on Wednesday. The markets should be range bound until then - great trading for the Stochastic & MACD traders out there. Just make sure you are FLAT before the Fed Announcement at 1:15 on Wed.

Pivot numbers didn't change much, which means they are holding. - let me know if there are questions - JK

Pivot/Support/Resistance for Tuesday, OCT 30:

The Inside Edge for Tuesday, Oct 30

From Charlie:

Monday’s market as we surmised was range bound w/support at 113-04/08 and resistance at 113-24/28 both holding. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting should continue to hold the market in a range as large institutions are sidelined until the Fed speaks. The futures markets are saying the Fed will cut rates ¼ of a point on Wednesday. This is built into bond prices. We see today as another range bound day w/a seller above 113-28 and a buyer below 113-12. Today’s news Consumer Confidence is expected at 100 and should not be a factor. Trade the range today.


F1 Comments: Market is in a bracket until the Fed speaks Wednesday. The market’s bias is sideways through Wednesday‘s FOMC announcement.



F2 Comments: Market found strong buying below 13-10 leaving a 6 tick tail. 5-6 tick tails are hard to take out w/out new news. Buyers were present through the rest of the session and the market closed strong. Consumer Confidence is expected at 100 and should only cause a minor reaction. Think the market is in a bracket until the Fed’s rate announcement.


F4 Comments: Analysis was to trade the range. OK to sell 113-11/15 and buy 113-05/09. Multiple signals throughout the session.

Monday, October 29, 2007

As the market comments from Charlie (see below) point out, the markets are clearly expecting the Fed to cut interest rates during the FOMC meeting on Tuesday - Announcment on Wednesday. This is a text book case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact."

Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
FOMC Announcement - Wednesday
and Unemployment Friday - all this week -

Get ready - we are in for a great ride.

Support and Resistance For Monday:

Inside Edge Research from Charles Cochran

Market didn’t break out, nor break. The impact of the emini S&P Futures pushed the Bond between support and resistance, three times as the market filled in volume between 113-06 and 113-30. The saddle formation contained the Bond as it usually does when there is no new news. The focus remains economic activity news and the ES’s reaction to that news. Likely to be the same next week. FOMC interest rate decision on 10-31-07. The futures markets are saying there is a 100% probability of a ¼ point cut. We will see. Credit problems continue and rate relief is the fastest way to offer relief. This news is built into today’s prices. An interest rate cut combined w/disappointing economic news could take the Bond to 114-28/115-00 quickly. Still see the Bond higher and the ES lower over time.


F1 Comments: Market still trading in a range. ES is market’s focus and whipping Bond around. As long as volume continues build above 113-06. Long term bias remains higher.

F2 Comments: Market traded between the High Volume (HV) nodes at 113-06 and 113-30 in a slow, Low Volume (LV) day. The session ended in a “b” pattern. The market is pointed lower, if the emini S&P continues this afternoon’s rally. The Fed will speak this week on interest rates. If they cut rates, it is supportive for equities and financials. No news on Monday. If the ES is lower, we want to buy the bond. If he ES is higher, we want to sell the Bond. Sell zone is 113-15/19. Buy zone is 113-05/09 w/a back up buy at 112-29/113-01. Today’s market might be the best day for trading until the Fed speaks.


F4 Comments: Analysis was to trade the market from both sides. Market ran its range 3 times. Multiple buys and sells.

From Charles

Bond Market did trade up/hold its recent gains as per the analysis. The intraday trading was whipped around by the ES, which becomes the market’s focus after the news hits the wires. Once again the news was a disappointment for those looking for economic growth. I expect the economic growth news to continue to come in below expectations as it does when an economy is contracting. Not much in the way of new news on tap today w/revised Michigan Sentiment forecast at 82.5. Should have negligible impact. Down to OVN earnings and their impact on the ES. If the ES is higher, the Bond should sell, but probably won’t break. Want to buy into early weakness and see if 114-05 can be taken out. If it holds, would expect the market to fill in volume between 113-15 and 113-30. Will be trading w/one eye on the ES.

C. Cochran

For Friday, Oct 26th

Consumer Sentiment will be released Friday morning.

Consumers are wary these days, and although Halo 3 may have bumped up Microsoft's earnings for Q3, Ford and the UAW just agreed that a reduction in the workforce is needed. Consumers aren't buying houses right now and the demand for used autos is at a peak low (confirmed by a special TM client - a shout out to you GG.)

Like I wrote the other day, I'll pay $500 for an iPhone or an Xbox 360 - but I am not making any bigger purchases. A lot of volatility out there, great for trading, still looking for the emini S&P futures to trade lower.

The Consumer Confidence Report (different than Consumer Sentiment above) is coming out Tuesday followed by the FOMC Meeting later that day - amazing how the two coincide.

BIG trading days coming - lets Take the Trade.



Pivot Levels for Friday, Oct 26th:

For Thursday, Oct 25th

The volatility of this market is great for day traders. Im still on the short side of the trade due to the markets overreaction to news and the fact than new home sales coming out tomorrow is almost guaranteed to echo the current housing slump.

Jobless claims (also due out Thursday Morning) and Consumer Sentiment on Friday are also likely to have a impact to the downside.

TradeMaven has released version 4.1.6 - upgrade at www.tmdownloads.com

Pivot Levels For Thursday, Oct 25th

For Wednesday, Oct 24, 2007

"I think the trend for the market is down unless investors see something positive, and the market drifts back up again," said a Chicago economist and analyst this afternoon. What Garbage!

No one needs me to say, "The market may go down folks, but if it doesn't then this is going to be a buyers market." - Let me be more decisive -

Market gains on Monday CLOSED out significantly more positions in the emini S&Ps, today's gain is more of the same. Housing is a huge indicator of the sentiment of the nation - people might be willing to grab a new iPhone for $500 (sending tech stocks up), but they are not willing to let go of serious cash. We have only seen the first wave of the nationwide credit issues and an 8 month supply of housing. Existing Home Sales Report due out Wednesday @ 10 am ET. - I'm still on the short side.

However, Both Sides can be played - look for slowed volume as a confirmation to take the trade as the market approaches the support/resistance. - If you have a question please post a comment. - JK

Pivot Levels For Wednesday:

For Tuesday, Oct 23rd, 2007

"Though the major U.S. stock indexes showed signs of strength Monday, there are still big worries on Wall Street about how problems in the financial markets might drag on corporate and economic growth" - reported by the Associated Press Monday afternoon.

"worries" on Wall Street new plus Existing and New Homes Sales Reports out this week keep me looking to sell against resistance in the emini S&P. At the very least, they should hold the first time the market hits them.

Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Oct 23rd:

For Monday, Oct 22, 2007

It is doubtful that we'll start to see a turn around from this bear move last week. Major Reports due out this week are Existing Home Sales (Wed), New Home Sales (Thurs), and Consumer Sentiment (Fri).

The housing market is unlikely to pick-up before the spring, and consumers are likely to be sheepish with gas prices rising and the equity markets tanking.

But who called it? I did. I got a hearty congrats Friday when my boss said, "even a blind squirrell finds a acorn once in a while." - Still on the SHORT side. - Buying breaks in the bonds sounds like a good trade to me. - JK

Support and Resistance Numbers for Monday, Oct 22, 2007:

The Charts Explained

One of the most common questions from the room is, "what are the different charts, and what do they show?"

There are four screens available for use. These four are the ones we have settled upon as the software was developed and tested over the last five months. The four screen layout shows how we sequence the flow of internal market information down to the execution of the trade:

F1 Screen

The first screen, F1, is a monthly market profile screen and the data can be split and saved by the user. The long term distribution on the right of the screen holds up to two year's worth of data, which is usually more than enough to capture the long term trend and market’s most recent move. This long term distribution can also be colored to show the number of contracts traded per transaction allowing one to differentiate between small speculators and large institutional traders (can show three different lot sizes in each price/volume bar). The monthly timeframe was chosen to make sure the trader was aware of where the market was, has been and is pointing at a quick glance. Now you can easily integrate the day and week into the very long term and know whether you are early or late in a move and adjust your strategy accordingly.

F2 Screen

The second screen, F2, is the standard 30 minute market profile that allows user splits that can be permanently saved to speed the analysis/setup process. The distribution on the right of the screen is the long term distribution with up to two year's worth of data. This long term distribution can be colored to show the number of contracts traded per transaction allowing one to differentiate between small speculators and large institutions (can show three different lot sizes in each volume bar). The long term distribution can show actual contract volume or number of trades at a price or price changes (when contract volume isn't available) to accurately depict the distribution for the periods selected. The volume can be shown at the side of the distributions or superimposed over the distributions. We prefer the superimposed feature, because you can get more history on the screens, which helps one maintain the proper perspective.

F3 Screen

The third screen, F3, is a colorized 30 minute bar chart with volume attached. Red and blue show the prices outside of the value area. Yellow represents the value area. Green is the mean of the volume and magenta is the actual high volume number of the period, when different from the mean. The distribution on the right hand of the screen is the volume distribution for the entire day with the same color scheme as the individual bars. This shows the most recent activity and closest relevant price points, where one should expect opposite activity or a pause. This screen keeps you closest to the market profile information that drives the activity of the traditional market profile user.

The fourth screen, F4 (below), is a 5 minute "equi-volume" chart that shows the volume in that individual bar on the x-axis and price on the y-axis. The chart reveals a bar's volume relative to the volume of the other bars on the screen; the wider the bar the more the volume in that bar. The bar is further coded in the same manner as the F3 chart. The chart includes a long term distribution on the right side of the screen to help track the high and low volume numbers affecting the trade. At the bottom of the chart is a bar histogram that tracks the cumulative buying and selling for the day allowing one to monitor the cumulative buy and sell pressure in the market. The greater this number the harder it is to reverse a trend.

F4 Screen

In F3 and F4 we have developed a library of proprietary studies for potential trade recognition (location). These indicators capture the trade setup, the phenomena that trigger a trade and the entry. The four indicators show the following:

1. The letters B and S letters show market trends.

2. The black up and down arrows isolate and show each rotational high or low for one's defined timeframe. This emphasizes rotational highs and lows that are the market's edges so the trader doesn't miss them. Furthermore, it greatly speeds up the analysis and study of history in the data base.

3. The pink/blue squares show potential turning points or edges in the market by measuring the acceleration and deceleration in market activity over the number of price increments selected; the shorter the timeframe the fewer the price increments.

4. The green circle shows when the market is retesting a previous rotational high or low within as many ticks as the user has selected to accommodate a particular market’s personality and timeframe.

Each of these studies can be adjusted to fit the user's timeframe and trade sensitivity, thereby increasing or decreasing the number of trades to be considered. The proprietary studies are real time, allowing you to take a trade in the signal bar, or after the bar closes like all other technical studies. This real time feature improves trade location over time and is usually the only way to get within a tick of the actual high or low of a rotation. These studies are not mathematical as most technical analysis studies are, but measure raw data, or what is actually happening in the market.

Our software allows integration of multiple timeframes and studies that bring a trader to the buy, sell or flat decision.

Let me know if you have any questions.

For Friday, Oct 19th

News services are still throwing around the term "uneasiness" when describing the equity markets. This does notbode well for those, like me, who love the bullish markets.

CNN continues to spread the rumor of the Fed cutting interest rates, but the next FOMC meeting isn't scheduled till the 30th. So, till then watch for for falling rocks. Day Trading requires flexibility.


Tomorrow (Friday, Oct 19) we are having an open session in the TradeMaven Inside Edge Research Room.

Join me in the TradeMaven’s Inside Edge Room tomorrow at 8am ET (7am Central)
www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven, the password is “crystal”


Support and Resistance numbers for Friday, Oct 19th:

For Thursday, October 18th

Gotta Love the Volatility in the eMini's Market!

Reports Due out Tomorrow, 18 Oct:
Jobless Claims – 8:30 ET/ 7:30 Central
Leading Economic Indicators – 10:00am ET/ 9:00 Central
Philly FED Survey – 12:00pm ET/ 11:00 am Central

I was really surprised to see the eMini S&P’s (Russell 2000, etc.) rally so far in the afternoon. Positive corporate earnings may have caused the rallies, but general worries about the economy as well as rumors of the Fed continuing to slash interest rates have me still looking to the short side in the morning.

I still don’t think we’ve hit bottom yet – Are we having FUN YET?

Thursday (Oct. 18th) we are having an afternoon recap of the TradeMaven Inside Edge Methodology; a comprehensive trader’s education forum focused on e-Mini S&Ps and U.S. Treasury Bond Futures. TradeMaven’s Inside Edge features all of the necessary analytics and execution information in one place to speed up your decision process, keep you on the right side of the market, and eliminate so much of the noise that surrounds trading today.

Join me in the TradeMaven’s Inside Edge Room Thursday, Oct 18th at 4:30 ET (3:30 Central)
www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven, the password is “profile”

Day-Trading Support/Resistance for Thursday Oct 18th:

For October 17

Today after the close I will be giving a Market Profile class – be sure to join me; it’s FREE and I am certain you will gain a better understanding value in the markets and maybe we’ll have some FUN while we're at it.

Join me in the TradeMaven’s Inside Edge Room today at 4:30 ET (3:30 Central) for this Market Profile Seminar!
www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven, the password is “profile”

Essential Report Due out Wednesday – CPI = Consumer Price Index at 8:30 ET / 7:30 Central. Additionally, the Housing Starts Report is due out at the same time. I really can’t see these reports turning the market around. Still looking for the SHORT side of the trade.

The bottom line is that we haven’t hit bottom yet. The key will be a market close below 1544 in the S&P’s

Day-Trading Support/Resistance for Wednesday:

For October 16

Today is the last day of the Free Trial Week of TradeMaven’s Inside Edge. Join us at 8:00 am ET for opening comments.

www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven, the password is 'sellers'.

With the housing market and “subprime” mortgage situation as it is, (not to mention $86 Crude) it looks like my bullish run in the e-Minis died a painful death.

The bright side is there are points to be made on the down side – or look into the Bond Futures – see link to Research Room above.

Bear Trends = SELL RALLIES. When the market comes back to S1 after going midway down to S2 – SELL, SELL, SELL!

“What are they doing? They’re selling, Mortimer!” – (BTW if you haven’t seen Trading Places yet, you need to go back to trading baseball cards.)

The trend is your friend, but resist the temptation to sell the lows - be patient and wait for a pullback to hit low volume areas (hint: those are the S/R points).

Please Keep in Mind:

CPI is due out on Wednesday

Day-Trading Support/Resistance for Tuesday:

Welcome!