Unemployment Friday

For Friday:

Great rally on Thursday, but I have the feeling unemployment is going to be worse than expected - expect the S&P's to open lower, then rally through the morning with long covering in the afternoon heading into the weekend -

Starting Tuesday the TradeMaven Inside Edge chat room will be having it free trial week. Details to follow - Have a great weekend, folks!

Upcoming Reports:
Friday:
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Friday, Feb 1st:

Hot Shot for Thursday

For Thursday:

The .50 Rate cut was more than I had expected and I think it shows that for the short term, the markets will be headed lower - Unemployment is out on Friday and I don't think the numbers will inspire the long-term traders to buy. Uncertainty still reigns look to sell rallies against resistance.

Thursday afternoon we will be having an Introductory webinar of our TradeMaven Inside Edge.

When: 3:30 pm Central time, Thursday, 31 Jan -
Where: the TradeMaven online Chat Roomwww.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
no password will be needed.


Upcoming Reports:
Thursday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Thursday, Jan 31st:

Fed Day

For Wednesday:

Fed Announcement Day - the market has been driven higher by the expectation of a rate cut - I would expect to see a .25 basis point cut. The market will rally higher, but a sharp down move may be the initial reaction off the news and then the rally will come -

After the Fed announcement, I will be holding Market Profile Training. I will be covering the basics of the profile in an hour-long presentation that will teach you how to find value in the market and identify great trade location.

When: 3:30 pm Central time, Wednesday, 30 Jan -
Where: the TradeMaven online Chat Room www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
no password will be needed.


Upcoming Reports:
Wednesday:
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET
FOMC Announcement 2:15 ET

Thursday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

From the TradeMaven Software, Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Wednesday Jan 30th

State of the Markets

For Tuesday,

Is is just me, or is the term "Economic Stimulus Package" a little politically incorrect? Putting aside the juvenile response I give when anyone says "package," I feel that to say our economy needs stimulating is UNAMERICAN. Our economy is GROWING... just more slowly at the present time - 

Has America really left its growth spurt behind, or are we still growing and like our pubescent high schoolers, just needs more sleep to enable the growth? - deep thoughts...

Truly the market will take the State of the Union in stride before the Fed announcement and Unemployment Situation numbers coming out later in the week - there reports will have a much more dramatic effect on the market.

I still think the market will continue to rise during the regular trading hours leading up to the Fed announcement on Wednesday - 

 
Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday:
FOMC Meeting Begins
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Wednesday:
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET
FOMC Announcement 2:15 ET

Thursday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Tuesday Jan 29th: BTW these are generated off the TradeMaven Software - 

Fumbling Towards Recovery

For Monday,

There are some bad numbers out there that are going to keep the bulls and the bears arguing for some time. While the governments stimulus package has hopefuls buying, reality for reports will keep the markets grounded -

Be very aware of UPCOMING REPORTS - Housing Data, Consumer Confidence and Credit, and Unemployment numbers are going to be a sea-anchor to our "recovering" economy.
I think the emini S&P market will rally leading up to the Fed announcement and another rate cut - but reports, as I have noted, will tend to pull the market back down - sell rallies and buy breaks - the broken record...

Upcoming Reports:This is a HUGE week for news
Monday
New Home Sales 10:00 ET

Tuesday:
FOMC Meeting Begins
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET

Wednesday:
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
ADP Employment Report 8:15 ET
FOMC Announcement 2:15 ET

Thursday:
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET

Friday:
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET

Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Monday Jan 28th:

Breaking the Bank

Some of my clients ask me why, as a broker, I don't trade personally - and this Jerome Kerviel who traded away almost 5 billion Euros of Societe Generale is the reason. I hate to admit it but I would probably end up breaking a major European bank if I ever traded -

For Friday -
S&P and other equity index markets are up since the emergency rate cut, so I would expect the market to close lower before the weekend. The volatility is so great I would expect to many traders will be looking to hold positions over the weekend -

Volume Weighted Pivot support and Resistance for Friday Jan 25th:

The Trading Gods

Market Commentary for Wednesday Afternoon:

Well, the S&P futures market rallied late this afternoon nearly 50 points largely due to heavy praying by individual trader Harold Jordan of Coast City, CA.
"I was long from 1375.00 and I finally prayed to the S&P god - 'Can we please rally about 50 points and I never use the F word again.'" said Jordan in a press conference this afternoon.

All joking aside - WOW!
Program trading says Reuters, Short Covering says local analysts, ECB rate cuts says CNBC - what ever it was we got some relief. But happy time are not necessarily here again. - even with news of further rate cuts planned by the Fed.

For Thursday:
Look at the volume to see were trading develops a value area - buy dips at support and sell rallies at resistance with tight stops tomorrow - do not fight the trend (UP or DOWN)

Upcoming Reports:
Thursday 24th-
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Existing Home Sales 10:00
ETEIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Thursday Jan 24th:

Deny, Deny, Deny

For Wednesday,
I will be holding Market Profile Training starting at 3:30 pm Central Time.

Market Profile is a great introduction to the Inside Edge material we teach and is a great tool even when used by itself or to complement the indicators you already use.

Join me at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven
the room will not be password protected at that time -

Now to market comments:
So the Fed cut rate by 3/4 of a basis point - we aren't in a recession...please?
Now if everyon can please put on thier life jackets and...

Emergency actions are not long term solutions - I expect the market bottom has not been hit by a long shot. - THe market profile can help your trading

Upcoming Reports:
Thursday 24th-
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Existing Home Sales 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET



Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Wednesday 23rd:

It's okay...everything's going to be fine.

If everyone could just start... uh... buying - that would be... good.

S&P Futures: There must be a hundred analysts I could parrot right now and say the markets will be extremely volatile in the weeks to come - selling opportunities are there so sell rallies - 

No major news on Tuesday - 

Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Jan 22nd:

note: - there is not enough volume at these levels to find clear support and resistance, buying breaks at these levels is not a great idea.

For Thursday

Somedays you get the bear and some days the bear gets you. Sell rallies against the numbers - best advice I can give -

Presidential candidates are going to keep topics like jobs, the economy, and fuel prices on the front page - all are very bearish.

Thursday Reports:
Housing Starts 8:30 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET


Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Thursday Jan 17th:

Timing Issues

Due to time constraints, I am unable to update the numbers for Wednesday, Jan 16th.
I apologize to my faithful readers.

best
Josh

For Tuesday

Tuesday is the final day of the TradeMaven Inside Edge Open House -
Participants will recieve email instructions and the room password before the fist class begins at 3:30 pm Central.

From Charles Cochran:

A relatively quiet day. Range was less than normal and volume was below Friday’s. Big news in the morning. Would expect the OVN market to be contained as players await the outcome of the news. The focus should be Retail Sales as the Fed has announced that they are concerned about consumer spending, which is 70% of our economy. The market is pointed higher w/some help from the news. Again doubt that there will be any concentrated selling across the market given the Fed’s announcement to “take out insurance” for economy. Looking to buy weakness tomorrow off of supportive 0830 EST news.

F1 Comments: Another day of buying. Both price and volume moved higher today. The market is pointed higher w/some help from the news. Bias is an uptrend in a bracket.

F2 Comments: Analysis was to buy Monday’s market. Preferred buy zone was 118-01/05. The day session low was 118-03. A quiet day w/limited range. Each break found willing buyers at 118-08 OB. The ES was sideways too. By the close the analysis favored higher prices w/out news. There is news tomorrow. Think the focus will be Retail Sales. The Fed has said they are concerned about consumer spending and are going to take out economic insurance to make sure that banks will continue to make loans. So sellers will be reluctant in my opinion. The first buy zone is 118-13 OB. Our preferred buy zone is 118-05 OB. Down to the news tomorrow morning.

F3 Comments: Analysis was to be a buyer. Multiple buy opportunities throughout the session.

Volume Weighted Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Jan 15th:

For Monday

A couple of things...

1. Upgrade to TradeMaven 4.2.3 at http://www.tmdownloads.com/ if you are trading the CBOT Dow and Grains as these contracts have moved from the eCBOT over to the Globex.

2. Monday and Tuesday are the last two day of the TradeMaven Inside edge Trial week. Come and join the chatroom for Monday, Jan 14th and Tuesday, Jan 15th.

Click here to join the room - no password is required:
www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven

Comments From Charles:

The Bond traded to the lower edge of the P on the F1 charts and support held. The bracketed market continues. The ES conversely traded to the top of its b and resistance held. There was a spate of bad economic news OVN and early in the day session. This news brought in selling in the ES and buying in the Bond. The Bond’s strength carried into the post day session trading w/new intraday highs made at 118-16. The Bond is pointed higher w/out news. As long as the news supports a weakening economy we want to be long the Bond. No news on Monday to impact the trading. Will assume the ES’s continued reaction to negative news will set the direction for the Bond on Monday.

F 1 Comments: The bottom of the bracket held and the Bond reversed to close in the middle of the bracket. The market’s bias remains a bracketed market. It is set to retest resistance at 119-07/12.

F2 Comments: The selling dictated by Thursday’s sharp break to 117-06/10 was satisfied in the OVN session and the retest of support at 117-06/08. When the ES weakened, the Bond strengthened and this buying continued into the Bond’s close. The Bond is pointed higher as long as the economic news remains soft to negative. No news to drive the trading on Monday. We want to buy early weakness, if the ES is sideways to lower and see id 118-20/24 can be taken out. May have to pay up and enter the market against 118—08. Preferred buy zone is 118-01/05. Exit this trade, if 118-20/24 is rejected. If 118-20/24 is rejected, OK to get short with a cover, if 118-00/04 holds.

F 3 Comments: Analysis was to be a seller first w/a reverse, if 117-04/08 holds. The low was 117-06 and it did hold. Rest of the day was up. Multiple trades on either side of the market.

Volume Wieghted Support and Resistance Numbers for Monday, Jan 14th:

For Friday

Note: This weekend the eCBOT E-mini Dow and Grain Contracts will migrate over to the CME Globex as part of the CME Group Merger - If you trade these contracts you must upgrade to TradeMaven Version 4.2.3 - this version will be posted on www.trademaven.com this weekend.

  

Comments from Charles Cochran:

The market tried one more time to test the high end of the current bracket that failed to take out the November high at 119-12. 118-27 held and the selling began. The early news was not supportive. The market was pointed lower when the early release of Bernanke’s hit the tape and the market broke. The Fed will do whatever is necessary to support the economy, which is rapidly cooling. One of the major reasons for buying Bonds---a recession was once again open for discussion. Some of those that were short the ES covered and as the ES strengthened the Bond weakened. The Bond is set to retest the lower edge of the bracket w/some help from the ES and the news. Tomorrow’s news is not major news and the market’s focus should be the ES’s direction.

F1 Comments: the market may have reversed today. Follow through selling will confirm this. The top of the bracket held. The market’s bias has changed to downtrend in a bracket.

F2 Comments: The market reversed today when Bernanke’s speech was released to thefinancial press early. The analysis was to trade the range and try to sell above the HV# at 118-24 and buy the 118-13/17 area early in the session. The buy zone was slowly lowered during the session. Bernanke’s speech broke the market, even though it was longer term supportive for Bonds. The Fed will be cutting interest rates and increasing money supply to insure the economy doesn’t move into a recession from banking liquidity problems. The market closed weak. The analysis favors lower prices tomorrow. We want to sell early strength and see if 117-00/04 can be taken out. If it holds, we will cover. Aggressive sell – 117-15/19. Back up sell 117-23/27. If 117-00/04 holds, cover and/or get long.

F4 Comments: Analysis was to trade from either side. Sell 118-19/23…buy 118-13/17. Multiple trading opportunities from both sides of the market.

Volume Weighted Pivots for Jan 11th:

For Thursday

The TradeMaven Inside Edge open house week continues...

The Chatroom will be open all day long and Thursday will also be basic training day. I'll be giving training for all users on Thursday, Jan 10th at 3:30pm Central.

us to learn more about basic order strategies this week.

Please login to www.trademaven.omNovia.com/tmaven, (you may need to copy this link into your browser.)
No password will be required at that time.

Posted By Charles Cochran:

Another up day until the rumor of a Fed interest rate cut this week hit the ES market.The ES rallied back and the Bond sold. Why would the Bond sell off from a rumored interest rate cut? Rumor … fact? Bond has rallied off the idea that the Fed would cut interest rates at the 1-31-08 FOMC meeting. Talk of a 50 bp rate cut is also in the market w/futures markets showing a 65% probability of just that. We will see. No news to drive today’s trading other than weakness in the ES, whch did take the Bond higher after lunch. When the ES reversed, so did the Bond. Don’t think the Bond can break until the Fed cuts rates. So see the market at least in a trading range until then. Some news tomorrow that could cause a minor reaction too. Initial moves should be tied to ES’s direction.

F1 Comments: Market is at the top of the bracket. Needs to take out 119-12 to hold longs in positions. Bias remains uptrend in a bracketed market.

F2 Comments: Market played to our script until the close of the day session, when short covering in the ES brought selling to the Bond. The rumor mill was buzzing w/a Fed rate cut coming in the OVN market. We will see. The Bond has traded to the high end of the bracket on the idea that the Fed will cut rates this month by as much as 50 bp. The fundamental news supports a rate cut. The economy needs it too. The Treasury market intervention committee has been activated and advertised as such. Would make you think twice about piling onto the short side of the market. The late selling in the Bond took the market back to the day’s lows at 118-12/14. If the ES is higher OVN, would expect the Bond to sell a bit more and retest the 118-00/04 area. If the ES is lower, then I think 118-12/16 will be support. If the ES is higher, sell 118-15/20. Cover, if 118-04± holds. If the ES is lower, buy 118-13/17. Exit, if 118-24 is then rejected. Will key off of the ES’s direction tomorrow.

F4 Comments: Analysis was to buy 118-13/17. Day session low was 118-14. Multiple buying opportunities through K period.

Inside Edge Comments

The next few day I will be posting comments from the TradeMaven Inside Edge usergroup site. This market analysis is posted every trading day -

Join us Jan 9th-15th for our daily chat room - click on www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven - no password is necessary.

Today’s market was on hold as the market traded between 117-24- and 118-08+. The Pending Home Sales news was supportive, but took the entire day to work its way into the market. The ES held its range until the Bonds closed and the bottom fell out of the market. The fundamentals are supportive for the Bond and not for the ES longer term. And the Bond may have started a new move out of the middle in the L period today. No news to drive tomorrow’s trading. The focus should be the ES. I expect the ES to be sold OVN, which should support the Bond. Tomorrow’s ES session should see a weak opening, followed by some retracement.

F1 Comments: Market has been in an uptrend in a bracket. It may have broken out late in today’s session. Follow through buying tomorrow will take us into an uptrend, if 119-12 is taken out. Bias is for higher prices.

F2 Comments: A sideways day until late in the session when the ES plummeted and the Bond rallied accordingly. The early news was supportive for the Bond, but that didn’t stop the market from selling down to 117-21, a blue area, where buyers once again emerged to support the market. The rest of rthe day was a slow grind higher w/a strong close. Had hoped to be able to buy the Bond at 118-01/05. Will have to pay up now. Aggressive buy is 118-17/21. A conservative buy is 118-13 OB. Danger tomorrow will be a gap up opening that finds sellers off the opening. And normal dynamics for down markets are higher openings to knock the weak shorts out of their positions. A higher opening in the ES could set up a better buy in the Bond.

F4 Comments: Analysis was two sided. Market traded in a bracket most of the day w/multiple buy and sell signals throughout the session

For Tuesday

Erratic is the word being used to describe trading lately. I would expect that 4th quarter earnings will make the emini S&P's dip even lower. This will have to be balanced with the possibility of another rate cut by the fed - good trading days ahead - I'm still leaning toward the bearish side.

Tuesday afternoon we will begin the TradeMaven Inside Edge trial week. Charlie Cochran will be giving an hour introduction to the Inside Edge methodology. The 3-2-1approach to trading really makes the concepts of market profile easier to understand.

Join us at 3:30 pm Central at www.trademaven.omnovia.com/tmaven, (no password will be necessary after 3pm)

Volume Weighted Pivot Support and Resistance for Tuesday, Jan 8th:

For Monday

Fridays unemployment impact was obviously huge - I'm sticking with the bear trend.

Sell rallies against resistance -

Upcoming Reports:
Tuesday - Consumer Credit

Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for Monday, Jan 7th:

The Voice

For Thursday,

I said yesterday the market is bearish, tomorrow we may see a relief rally as Unemployment Friday is so close - big number Friday - The T-Bonds hit over 118 today - shocking... still bearish in the eMini S&P going into unemployment.

Upcoming Reports:
Thursday
Jobless Claims - 8:30am ET

Friday
Employment Situation - 8:30am ET (a BIG one)

Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for Thursday, Jan 3rd

The New Year

For Wednesday,

Trading volume should be back to normal on the first trading day of the year. Uncertainty is a word we are hearing a lot lately. However volatility us great for futures markets - more opportunity. Short term the market will be bearish.

Upcoming Reports:
Wednesday
FOMC Minutes - 2:00pm ET

Thursday
Jobless Claims - 8:30am ET

Friday
Employment Situation - 8:30am ET (a BIG one)

Volume Weighted Pivot, Support and Resistance for Wednesday, Jan 2nd: