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Posted By Charles Cochran:

Another up day until the rumor of a Fed interest rate cut this week hit the ES market.The ES rallied back and the Bond sold. Why would the Bond sell off from a rumored interest rate cut? Rumor … fact? Bond has rallied off the idea that the Fed would cut interest rates at the 1-31-08 FOMC meeting. Talk of a 50 bp rate cut is also in the market w/futures markets showing a 65% probability of just that. We will see. No news to drive today’s trading other than weakness in the ES, whch did take the Bond higher after lunch. When the ES reversed, so did the Bond. Don’t think the Bond can break until the Fed cuts rates. So see the market at least in a trading range until then. Some news tomorrow that could cause a minor reaction too. Initial moves should be tied to ES’s direction.

F1 Comments: Market is at the top of the bracket. Needs to take out 119-12 to hold longs in positions. Bias remains uptrend in a bracketed market.

F2 Comments: Market played to our script until the close of the day session, when short covering in the ES brought selling to the Bond. The rumor mill was buzzing w/a Fed rate cut coming in the OVN market. We will see. The Bond has traded to the high end of the bracket on the idea that the Fed will cut rates this month by as much as 50 bp. The fundamental news supports a rate cut. The economy needs it too. The Treasury market intervention committee has been activated and advertised as such. Would make you think twice about piling onto the short side of the market. The late selling in the Bond took the market back to the day’s lows at 118-12/14. If the ES is higher OVN, would expect the Bond to sell a bit more and retest the 118-00/04 area. If the ES is lower, then I think 118-12/16 will be support. If the ES is higher, sell 118-15/20. Cover, if 118-04± holds. If the ES is lower, buy 118-13/17. Exit, if 118-24 is then rejected. Will key off of the ES’s direction tomorrow.

F4 Comments: Analysis was to buy 118-13/17. Day session low was 118-14. Multiple buying opportunities through K period.