Comments from Charles Cochran:
The market tried one more time to test the high end of the current bracket that failed to take out the November high at 119-12. 118-27 held and the selling began. The early news was not supportive. The market was pointed lower when the early release of Bernanke’s hit the tape and the market broke. The Fed will do whatever is necessary to support the economy, which is rapidly cooling. One of the major reasons for buying Bonds---a recession was once again open for discussion. Some of those that were short the ES covered and as the ES strengthened the Bond weakened. The Bond is set to retest the lower edge of the bracket w/some help from the ES and the news. Tomorrow’s news is not major news and the market’s focus should be the ES’s direction.
F1 Comments: the market may have reversed today. Follow through selling will confirm this. The top of the bracket held. The market’s bias has changed to downtrend in a bracket.
F2 Comments: The market reversed today when Bernanke’s speech was released to thefinancial press early. The analysis was to trade the range and try to sell above the HV# at 118-24 and buy the 118-13/17 area early in the session. The buy zone was slowly lowered during the session. Bernanke’s speech broke the market, even though it was longer term supportive for Bonds. The Fed will be cutting interest rates and increasing money supply to insure the economy doesn’t move into a recession from banking liquidity problems. The market closed weak. The analysis favors lower prices tomorrow. We want to sell early strength and see if 117-00/04 can be taken out. If it holds, we will cover. Aggressive sell – 117-15/19. Back up sell 117-23/27. If 117-00/04 holds, cover and/or get long.
F4 Comments: Analysis was to trade from either side. Sell 118-19/23…buy 118-13/17. Multiple trading opportunities from both sides of the market.
The market tried one more time to test the high end of the current bracket that failed to take out the November high at 119-12. 118-27 held and the selling began. The early news was not supportive. The market was pointed lower when the early release of Bernanke’s hit the tape and the market broke. The Fed will do whatever is necessary to support the economy, which is rapidly cooling. One of the major reasons for buying Bonds---a recession was once again open for discussion. Some of those that were short the ES covered and as the ES strengthened the Bond weakened. The Bond is set to retest the lower edge of the bracket w/some help from the ES and the news. Tomorrow’s news is not major news and the market’s focus should be the ES’s direction.
F1 Comments: the market may have reversed today. Follow through selling will confirm this. The top of the bracket held. The market’s bias has changed to downtrend in a bracket.F2 Comments: The market reversed today when Bernanke’s speech was released to thefinancial press early. The analysis was to trade the range and try to sell above the HV# at 118-24 and buy the 118-13/17 area early in the session. The buy zone was slowly lowered during the session. Bernanke’s speech broke the market, even though it was longer term supportive for Bonds. The Fed will be cutting interest rates and increasing money supply to insure the economy doesn’t move into a recession from banking liquidity problems. The market closed weak. The analysis favors lower prices tomorrow. We want to sell early strength and see if 117-00/04 can be taken out. If it holds, we will cover. Aggressive sell – 117-15/19. Back up sell 117-23/27. If 117-00/04 holds, cover and/or get long.F4 Comments: Analysis was to trade from either side. Sell 118-19/23…buy 118-13/17. Multiple trading opportunities from both sides of the market.Volume Weighted Pivots for Jan 11th:
